Four The Win
There are laying systems in abundance these days. Some are good, some not so good, but every now and again you come across one that turns out to be absolutely exceptional and that’s exactly what happened to us this month.
When I first discovered Four The Win I was instantly impressed with both the simplicity of the system and the fact that it concentrates on hot favourites whose average odds are just 1/1. On top of that it takes just 10 minutes a day to find the selections, so straight away I could see we had an easily operated, potentially profitable, system on our hands.
This is what I had to say about it prior to starting our test:
I’m a big fan of the old ”Keep It Simple Stupid” adage when it comes to horse racing systems, because if a system has too many rules it’s almost certainly been backfitted and if this is the case, it’s highly unlikely that what happened in the past will continue to prove profitable in the future.
That’s a cold hard fact I’m afraid, so if you ever purchase a system and find that it’s practically unworkable in practice because of the number of rules involved, do yourself a favour and treat it with extreme caution. In the vast majority of cases it will save you time, effort and expense.
Someone who agrees with me on this is Joe from Four The Win.
Joe’s created a horse racing laying system that’s based on solid form-based principles, that’s simple in the extreme and that targets runners at the bottom end of the odds range, so unlike many of the laying systems I see nowadays, the odd winner here or there is never going to wipe out your betting bank. It’s a very selective system that quite simply highlights runners with a weak profile in races that are competitive enough to warrant taking them on.
This is exactly how bookmakers operate and if it’s your goal to succeed as a betting exchange layer, you could do worse than follow the time-proven principles of traditional bookmaking.
Joe’s system comes packaged in a short, well-written, 16 page ebook that explains everything you need to know clearly and concisely. You’ll know exactly what your selections are likely to be the evening before racing and the rules of the system are all very straightforward.
I’ll be testing Four The Win for the next month with a £1000 starting bank and I’ll be aiming to win £25 on each bet, using a non-aggressive version of the Fibonacci staking plan (as is advised in the book) to recoup losses from winning bets.
We then tested Four The Win for the full month of March (you can check the full results here) and to say we were impressed with what happened would be an understatement!
This is what Craig said when he wrote his final review:
Well, we’ve come to the end of the road for our months test of Four The Win and it’s been a fascinating month. When I first saw the system I was a little sceptical. There are only four simple rules to be followed, and although I could see the logic behind the system, I was a little apprehensive that the system would work at the prices we were laying at. Include a loss recovery staking plan and I had visions of money going down the tube - oh how wrong was I???
I have been astounded by the performance of Four The Win, and I do mean absolutely astounded. In the 30 days of testing we made 16 points profit, and when you consider the average odds we were laying at were evens, and that a large amount of selections were actually odds on, that is simply amazing. We returned a 41.5% profit on our bank, which is a huge ROI and again at the odds is, quite simply, outstanding!
Bare in mind that this is a system that will take you ten minutes a day to find your selections and you have what must be one of the most simple, straightforward, yet ultimately rewarding systems I have seen.
It’s no secret that I’m a big fan of laying, and some of the systems I’ve used in the past have had good success laying at the higher end of the odds market, but at that end you will be laying over the odds and a winner can cause a bit of a dent in your profits, but with Four The Win the odds are almost always within a couple of percent of official SP and often will beat SP because its all hot, hot favourites we’re laying.
So, to sum up, Four The Win is a laying system that lays at an average price of evens, uses a sensible loss recovery plan (which only twice did we go as far as the 3rd bet), has a strike rate in the region of 70% (meaning it will profit at level stakes) and is incredibly easy to operate. Add in the fact that Joe has provided us with excellent customer service, offers a tipping email service, and was only too willing to answer any of our queries and I have no choice but to give Four The Win….
…..FIVE OUT OF FIVE!
Now, some of you might look at the 16 points profit we generated and not be overly impressed with that, but in terms of return on investment this has exceeded everything we’ve ever reviewed on here multiple times over. Keep in mind that many laying systems target runners at 5/1, 6/1, or even 8/1, so your liabilities are 5x, 6x, or 8x higher than with Four The Win. This means that if you were operating on a liability basis you could effectively use 5x, 6x, or 8x larger stakes and when you look at it that way, the returns from this system are absolutely HUGE!
I can honestly say that I haven’t come across anything as appealing as this before. It pinpoints short priced favourites who lose with amazing accuracy and takes just 10 minutes a day to find them, so if you’ve been searching for something that’s extremely easy to operate, profitable in the extreme, and that won’t have you quaking in your boots every time one of your lay bets goes and wins, then look no further than Four The Win.
This one is the business - I love it!
Until next time,
Online Betting Exposed
Hi Jacq,
Sorry, all I did this morning was look at the results page and check the last date. I see what you mean now.
I can confirm that the results from FTW1 were always correct when it was available, but since it was taken off the market I haven’t paid any attention to what’s on the results page. No-one can buy it any longer so it’s kind of irrelevant now.
And I can’t speak for FTW2 as I’ve never used it. We’ve never tested or reviewed it, so I couldn’t even tell you what the rules are….
~ Paul
Paul,
Well I’m sorry but I’m afraid it certainly isn’t “all there”.
I can see quite a few omissions even on the days where results have been posted for. And to miss out all selections from the 10th. May to the 20th….well.
As most people know this was a very, very poor period for the system.
It’s simply not good enough to say well Joe was on holiday then so that doesn’t count.
To give the full picture I’m sure members who have been following the system could have been contacted for the results during this period. There may be a few instances where opinions differ & some got prices where others didn’t but the one’s where there was agreement could have been used.
To be honest reading the results as given & comparing with my own gives me no confidence whatsoever in the past results claimed…..What do others think ?
Jacq
Just check the results page on the Four The Win website Lynn….. it’s all there.
Can anyone say how both systems are performing? I stopped using FTW2 because of its several losing strikes too close to each other, to wait for the update to the system by Joe. I was curious to know how other people are getting on with them. Thank you
@ Lynn - Funnily enough I was looking into a forum earlier in the year and only got so far before I decided against it. However seeing as there are many users now of both FTW’s it may be worthwhile persuing again, especially in the light of future developments that you are unaware of!
I did have a customer who was technically minded request that they set this up for me and have a portal where customers can talk in real time as well as sharing their real time screens with other users etc. I may get back in touch with them and see what they say. In the mean time atleast we have this excellent site to communicate!
@ Mark - I didn’t think you were coming across unsupportive mate! It’s always good to hear peoples opinions, success, strategies etc and the best way to help me get feedback to improve the service for all of us. Thanks for your input!
I will be adding the 2008/09 FTWF teams in the next month or so to the updated ebook that you will be sent automatically. An additional point for next year also is the change of stake for the first few and last few games of the season. These are traditionally very unpredictable and I will alter to use 50% lower stakes for these as it is usually those times of the season we have a few upsets and prevents the profits from being higher than they are.
Cheers!
Joe,
All good stuff to hear and I look forward to receiving the next edition of FTWF which I will be giving a go to the £100 mark. I do agree that over £2k for the small amount of work is fantastic, and apologise if I came across as anything other than supportive.
Cheers
Mark
Just picking up MC’s idea about the forum. I’m sure that many of us would be interested and it could be one more way for Joe to advertise his products. Would it be hard to set one up? Sharing ideas and updating results in real time would probably benefit the system. On the other hand, would there be a real risk to have too many people using it so affecting the odds in the end? Have you already evaluated this, Joe?
@ Mark - Yes I am committed to the systems and of course to my customers making money. I do believe your results and may take you up on your offer to check them over when I have a bit more time! I also ran past results through the database and ended up with differing results to yours so I am not 100% convinced of the accuracy of the database, having said that it would be easy for one of us to use a different parameter and therefore end up with varying results. I hope you will look forward to the tweaked version in the future and profit from it nicely.
You are right about the FTW Football stakes. To achieve that profit I did need large stakes and I can never bring myself to watch the games! However if your bank is built up of winnings rather than earnings it is certainly easier to cope with. Even with 10% of those stakes which I’m sure most people could use, it is £2100 profit per season for very, very little work.
Thanks Mark.
@ MC - Thanks for your comment and in return appreciate your appreciation!
Hi Joe,
Just want to say how much I appreciate the fact that you are willing to come and post on this forum. I don’t think there are many system sellers out there who would.
Regards
MC
Joe,
Look forward to seeing the said improvements/tweaks on the current FTW2 it does show a commitment to your product, and I’m sure the website will be updated in due coarse.
I think you will find that my research on the historical results are quite accurate, If you would like me to pass them on for your comparison please let me know.
I alao agree that the FTW Football is without doubt profitable, although the figures quoted are to stakes most people would find unpalatable.
Also a shame we dont have a forum to discuss the FTW series officially, im sure we could learn a lot from each other.
Thanks for your time, speak soon.
Cheers
Mark
@ Jacq - Yes you are quite right and I feel stupid for not including the losing selections in my results. In my post holiday daze I seemed to have forgotten that rather important point!
I will check the past results myself when I get a chance for FTW2.
I am updating the FTW2 manual this week with an aim to increase the strike rate and therefore lower the chance odds of 4 race losing runs. May I just add in my defense that I have run a less selective version of FTW 2 since the beginning of this year (which led to me releasing FTW2) which has a 4 race losing run about once a month. However the short winning streaks and number of selections have ensured continous profit since then. Therefore with a more selective process (as is FTW2) I expect a more profitable system with FTW2.
FTW1 continues to profit and has done for a couple of years. This is also not fool proof (and no system is) as we recently had a losing run on that too in April, however long term profits have been generated every month bar one with FTW1.
In addition the FTW Football system earnt me over £21,000 this season.
I have trust in and use these systems myself with real money, real loses and real profits. I have faith in each of them and my aim is to help cusomers make money with them too. I would not release any material if I knew this would not be the case and will strive to ensure FTW2 is tweaked until customers are happy with it. Up until I went away (11th May) it was showing profit of over £2000. I appreciate that I have missed a bad run while on holiday and was fortunate myself to have misses it, though I still would have faith in it if I were matched on those losing bets.
Mark
Good for a change to see someone really get down to it and do their factual research. I have seen similar results off using different database.
However my question is:
Where are the stats showing that the long term data from fillies only (without any other criteria such as race type,etc) within this system price range are sufficiently bias to overcome the betfair deficit?
Its also pretty easy to produce selective data showing quite the opposite for fillies!
I have never seen the data or heard mention of it in support of the system.
All,
It does appear this thread has been overtaken by comments on FTW2 rather than FTW1, if the mod’s do not want anymore posting, by all means please delete this.
In looking at the Adrian Massey site you have to be carefull to remove all the selection that dont meet the criteria, as you cannot do this by default on the website, i.e. No of runners, prices etc.
Anyway long story short I popped it all in an excel spreadsheet and filtered everything out, run results from 2007 to present.
£-861 to level stakes (£100)
£-7705 to advised progresive stakes
Anyone wants to check my spreadsheet, let me know, more than happy to send it on.
Cheers
Mark
Hi Joe,
Your figures hav’nt taken into account the sums lost on the losing bets, for example with one winner showing up you would already have lost 100 (assuming the odds were 2.0) on that. Your next bet would be 200 which wins 190 after 5% commission, take off the 100 loss which makes a profit of 90.
90 X 72 = + 6480 profit
With two winners on the trot you would lose 100 on the first & 200 on the second (again assuming odds at 2.0) total -300
Your next bet would be 300 which wins giving you 300 - 5% commission =285 so you have now made a loss on this sequence of 15 pounds.
15 X 34 = 510 loss
If you do this calculation through the whole of the example given this gives you a total loss of 6820.
Jacq
Hi everyone, it’s Joe from FTW. I’m back from hols and won’t have much time to
write here until tomorrow so I’ll be quick…
@ NH - The four in a row loss I refer to is for FTW1 where it only happened
once in 2 years. This is not for FTW2 which is currently available.
@ MC - Your figures are interesting and by using your figures and doing some
quick maths have resulted in the following assuming £100 Fibonacci stakes with
5% Betfair commission. Don’t forget we do not go higher than the 5point stake
in the fibonacci sequence so the 6 winners and 7 winners would not be
continuous losses from the fib sequence and would results in a further 1, 2,
3, or 4 winner for those figures profit (hence why I have removed them here):
1 winner in a row 72 times = £95*72 = £6840
2 winners 34 times = £190*34 = £6460
3 winners 16 times = £285*16 = £4560
4 winners 7 times = £475*7 = £3325
5 winners 3 times = (11 point loss depends on odds matched however for example
sake using 14 point loss) = -£1400*3 = -£4200
11 winners 1 time = -£1400*1 = -£1400
Total therefore is £15,585 profit. Obviously this would vary depending on the
odds that were matched but gives some valadity of the longer term profits.
I guess we should keep in mind that Joe @ FTW has said that a four-in-a-row loss is something that last happened 2 years ago, before this April (in which it happened twice). According to MC’s research, this happened 7 times. We have to hope MC is wrong!
…and look forward to Joe’s input when he returns.
Hi All,
Well, I realised in the middle of the night that I had included the lower priced horses (1/2 and under) which doesn’t come into FTW2, so I’m glad I offered a health warning to my mathematical/statistical abilities. Here are the updated stats, which are better, but I’m still wary of the staking plan:
Over 2007 and 2008
526 bets with 275 wins 52.3% strike rate - and a win% at Betfair prices of 92.5% which is good news for layers as even factoring in a 5% commission there is a profit margin of 2.5%.
OK, now to the revised losing runs (and please go to Adrian Massey and confirm this if you have time as I am notorious for getting these things wrong!)
1 winner in a row 72 times
2 winners 34 times
3 winners 16 times
4 winners 7 times
5 winners 3 times
6 winnners 2 times
7 winners 3 times
11 winners 1 time
Giving a tally of 17 losers in a row (counting the 11 X 1 as 2 in a row).
There were 17 months between the beginning of 2007 and May 2008, so one blowout a month would leave the system at about break even, depending on the price of the 4 losses in a row and how much profit is made per month without a losing sequence.
I’d be interested to hear what Joe from FTW has to say, as he does seem like the kind of bloke who does his sums, so I am sure when he gets back from holiday he’ll shed more light on the process behind his selections.
Apologies for my error earlier.
Regards
MC.
I think some of you are talking about different things here.
Just to clarify - it’s only the original Four The Win system we’ve used and that’s what this review refers to. I think Craig is going to run a system test on the second version soon and I’ll take a look at the stats you posted this week MC. I haven’t used the second version, so I can’t comment about it yet as I’m not even sure what the rules are.
@ MC
I’m concerned about your results since I only own FTW2 and last few days’ results, bar what a few days is worth, seem to agree with you. I’m just curious, did you do anything similar for FTW? If yes, what results did you get? Thank you
P.S. According to what you say it seems like FTW2 could be a good backing system!
Just to note that my loss assumes my selection criteria have been correct and I have been matched on the same horses as Four the Win.
I understand Joe is on holiday at the moment so the results page has not been updated.
Cheers
Mark