Mathematician Betting

Mathematician Betting - Final Review

Well, we’ve come to the end of the testing period for Mathematician Betting and I have to say that our test was a bit of a non-event, because Guy only sent out six messages with account bets in them all month! At Starting Price we made a small loss of £32 to £20 stakes, but from the two winners he recommended one was backed from 14/1 into 9/1 and the other 5/4 into 8/11, so the actual profit was more like +£80 and I expect that’s more realistic of the profit his members would have achieved to £20 stakes during this period.

Six messages with account bets in the space of a month could hardly be seen as setting the world alight, but I suspect we probably chose one of the worst times of the year to monitor Guy’s bets, because he does tend to wind down a bit when we’re crossing over between racing codes. On top of that, he did send out a very detailed message almost every day and although these weren’t treated as account bets, he highlighted an abundance of winners over the course of the month, including a couple of successful each-way doubles just last week.

With this in mind, I feel that we’ve done Guy something of a disservice during this test. His daily emails really do provide you with a wealth of profitable information and we might have been better to republish these in their entirety to give you with the full picture on the service he provides. Of course, that’s easily said in hindsight, but if we were to go back and do it again (which we might do at some point in future) I think that’s the direction we would go in.

All in all, I wish we’d seen a bit more action this month, but I can’t knock the work Guy puts in. If you’re interested in seeing for yourself how good his analysis really is drop by Mathematician Betting and sign up for his free newsletter. It won’t cost you anything and it will give you a much better idea of how he operates (and the value he provides) than what we’ve published here.

Mathematician Betting 01/04/08

After a quiet spell, Mathematician Betting had an account bet yesterday. Here’s Guy’s take on the race:

WETHERBY 3:15

* This is a 2m 4f Handicap Hurdle in 0-110 class
* There has been 218 of these races in March and April between Class
3 and Class 6
* I have to oppose TARABALOO as a mare coming from a maiden hurdle with 3 runs
* Only 3 of the 218 winners came from maiden hurdles anyway and none
were female
* Not enough tried and failed to make me absolutely sure but
confident its a weak profile
* I can tell you that all year round mares from maiden hurdles are
1-39 and that winner had far more runs
* No 8 year old like SMART JOHN came from a maiden hurdle at any time of year
* I think the horses with 3 runs that come from maiden hurdles have a
lot to prove
* Therefore SMART JOHN and TARABALOO are rejected
* I want to oppose SCARLET MIX with a 377 day absence
* Only 4 of the 218 winners were seasonal debutants in a weak 4-141 record
* Seasonal debutants that had 13 of more career starts had a 0-53 record
* SCARLET MIX has had 16 runs and looks too exposed to defy an absence
* Seasonal debutants coming from Handicaps had a 1-99 record and he
also does that
* Add to that a jockey thats never ridden a winner before in only 22
runs and he doesnt appeal
* KARATHAENA is not for me as a Mare coming down from over 3 miles
* None of the 218 handicaps were won by mares dropping down so far in distance
* I looked at the 999 similar handicaps at any time of year
* No Mare either as a) Old or as b) exposed as KARATHAENA managed to
win any from over 3 miles
* MACCHIATO looks quite beatable with a low wins to run ratio
* SECURED doesnt look nearly ready enough to win yet
* Have to be hopeful I can beat a 10 year old Mare like BIG BERTHA
* I have no real problems with favourite BROOK NO ARGUMENT statistically
* Has to be said shes a mare stepping up from 2 miles having only
beaten Mares last time
* I fancy SPRINGVIC quite a bit in this
* Pretty clear both he and his stable were struggling for a while this year
* The stable were not right earlier but have come right now and their
last runner won
* SPRINGVIC has taken a while to get fit and into form this year but
he is there now
* He won his Novice Hurdle at this track and has no track issues
* The record of 8 year olds that placed within the last fortnight is
excellent in these races
* SPRINGVIC attempts to improve that record
* I would have been happier had he not been raised by the handicapper
for getting beat last time
* Thats just helped the price though and he impressed me in coming second
* He would have been closer had he not hit the last hard but he still
pulled clear of the 3rd
* SPRINGVIC isnt thrown in and doesnt outclass these but I still like him
* Feel he has momentum and is running into form at the right time
* With many shaky profiles against him I think he is worth an each way bet
* SPRINGVIC Each Way

Another comprehensive account of his feelings for the race. Unfortunately, it didn’t pan out as planned and Springvic trailed in last. We should point out that although there have been no account bets of late, Guy does send an email out most days with his feelings on various races. These have been performing well, but as they are not full account bets we have not given them out.

Day 7 P/L = -£40
Total P/L = -£32.95
Bank = £967.05

Mathematician Betting 22/03/08

After a few quiet days we had two account bets for Mathematician Betting today. Here’s what Guy had to say about his chosen races:

NEWTON ABBOT 2:25

I feel this race is worth higlighting today. Its a 17f Mares only
Maiden hurdle and I want to oppose BANOO as she comes from a Bumper in
a maiden hurdle. Mares Maiden Hurdles show bumper to have dismal
records. Between Deember and June during the National Hunt season
there has been 161 maiden hurdles for Mares and thats at any trip on
any course. Mares that come from Bumpers have a 0-161 record. That
speaks volumes. The only mares that have ever won a maiden hurdle
before came in October and November. With BANOO I would be happier if
she had less experience but overall the record of these types is
dreadful and the only ones that have won did so with very long
absences and none did it at this time of year. I have to oppose her
and FAIR COPPELIA the other Bumper horse. I dont want POSH EMILY. She
is rated only 88 and thats a lot lower than many of these. SIMPLE
GIFTS hasnt done enough for me yet. The favourite CAOBA has a good
chance but she makes the market for FIGURITA each way. FIGURITA has
had 3 runs over hurdles and there has been some reasonable excuses for
all her runs. She has been fighting inexperience but I dont see that
as a problem now and she doesnt have the drop in trip that the
favourite has. I dont see 3 horses beateing FIGURITA in this race
especially with most runners at big prices and I feel that even if I
am wrong about Banoo and the favourite wins then FIGURITA should still
have too much for every other runner. At 4/1 FIGURITA looks a good
each way bet to me.

DONCASTER 5:40

* This is a 12f handicap for Apprentices
* Doncaster has had 13 renewals of this race but it hasnt been run since 2005
* There were 30 similar races at other tracks for Apprentices as well
* The 13 races do throw up some trends
* Bear in mind the Draw as the last 8 winners were drawn low
* They all had stalls from 1-10 (9 5 2 2 4 7 6 10)
* The start of the race leads quickly into a sweeping turn that lasts
several furlongs
* The low Drawn horses have advantages in that they can get a position
and race prominently
* Others have to be dropped in at the back or forced to race wider than Ideal .
* Horses draw 13 of higher would concern me and these horses do that
* FLAME CREEK - SIR ARTHUR - THREE BOARS - PARNASSIAN - AMICAL RISKS -
PUY D’AMAC
* Fillies in this race have a 0-32 record and the following horses are fillies
* AMBITIOUS GENES - KARMAST
* None of the 13 winners had under 5 runs like DREAM OF FORTUNE
* In the 30 other races no past winners had under 5 starts either
* Horses aged 8 or more had a 0-41 record in this race
* TURN OF PHRASE - FLAME CREEK - PARNASSIAN - RED WINE fail that
* No horse stepped up from 8f to win or dropped from 16f to win
* FLAME CREEK - PARNASSIAN -THREE BOARS fail that
* No winner came from a 3yo handicap like DREAM OF FORTUNE
* None did it on other tracks either
* This leaves a shortlist of 7 runners
* Mixing - John Dillon -Top Spec -Penang Cinta -Calzaghe -Fossgate - Moonwalking
* You can argue that the vast majority of winners had ran recently
* They had either run over hurdles or on the sand
* Of my shortlist only Penang Cinta - Moonwalking have not
* I would argue the strongest runners in this race are these
* MIXING - JOHN DILLON - TOP SPEC - CALZAGHE - FOSSGATE

************

PUY D’ARNAC could be anything and is impossible to judge accurately
but he is not that strong in
the market and I think he has the worst draw in an 18 runner race. My
problem with MIXING is that
this is a 0-70 handicap and all his form really is in 0-60 grade and I
just wonder if he is not good enough.
JOHN DILLON is interesting and was very much a potential selection but
I am not convinced he will get
12 furlongs but he scares me a lot. CALZAGHE could pop up but he is
ungenuine and has downgraded
stables and I perfer others. FOSSGATE has a chance at 20/1 but I
prefer My selection

Have a look at TOP SPEC for a Moment

* This is a 0-70 handicap
* He has just finished 4th at Wolves in a 0-70 handicap
* He was entitled to need the run last time out
* He hadnt ran in over a month and he had ran just once since January
* Many past winners of this race came from the sand and 3 came from Wolves
* Most past winners had ran recently as well
* He last ran on the Flat in September when he was rated 68
* He has ran 3 times since on sand
* He is Better on Grass - all his wins have been on grass
* The Handicapper has dropped his Turf mark from 68 to 56
* He has dropped 12lbs since he last raced on Grass which is a serious help
* In the whole of his career he has never ran in a handicap off lower than 68
* Now he suddenly finds himself rated 56
* The run he had last time was creditable when 4th at Wolves
* The runner up has come out and won
* Today he has a Low Draw which has always been a massive help in this race
* He has a lightweight of 8st 7lbs
* Only 2 of the 13 winners of this race had 9st or more
* The last 7 winners saw 6 horses carrying 8st 8lbs or lower
* All the evidence suggests you want a lightweight
* He has a good rider who is leading Apprentice rider on the sand this winter
* Whichever side of good the ground rides shouldnt be a problem
* The stable are red hot. There last 8 runners finished W W W 7 4 W 4 3

Concerns

* I would be worried he is a bit of a dog but arent they all ?
* Worried all his wins come from August -October
* If you look at his early season form he hasnt had many chances and
has ran well several times
* At 10/1 he looks good to me

Guy advised an each way bet on Figurita and it was subject to a little support in the morning before drifting just a tad on course, however, our fate was known early on and the horse was eventually pulled up. It was a straight win bet on Top Spec who was heavily backed before the off, unfortunately the money for it was unjustified as it was soundly beaten.

A bit of a tough day then for Mathematician Betting, although he did shortlist a couple of double figured places, but as these weren’t account bets they’ll not be shown here.

Day 6 P/L = -£40
Total P/L = £7.05
Bank = £1007.05

Mathematician Betting 18/03/08

It’s been a quiet few days for Mathematician Betting, he did send out a message this morning but there were no account bets.  He did manage to grab a 15/8 winner in the opener at Warwick, but as it wasn’t an account bet it won’t go down in the results.

Still, after the 14/1 winner last week, we can’t really complain

Mathematician Betting 14/03/08

We had another account bet for Mathematician Betting today, and here’s Guy’s assessment of the race:

CHELTENHAM 4.40

* The GRAND ANNUAL stats suggest lightly raced horses are best since 1997
* The last 9 winners had no more than 11 runs in all Chases
* The last 9 winners had 7 - 1 - 0 - 3 - 0 - 4 - 0 - 0 - 5 Handicap Chase runs
* The last 9 winners had 4 - 4 - 6 - 7 - 4 - 7 - 3 - 6 - 7  Novice Chase runs
* 4 of the last 8 winners had Never ran in Handicap Chase before
* Another one had only ran in one previous Handicap Chase.
* I want to oppose the exposed horses
* Exposed horses won just 1 of the last 9 renewals
* Those that did win before that were lightweights and had recent runs
* In terms of the “no more than 11 runs in chases” to the letter
* I am ok with 12 or 13 chase starts but no more - a sensible approach is needed
* The following horses are rejected as being worryingly exposed and opposable
* They have all had 14 or more chase starts
* ALMAYDAN -  ANDREAS - BAMBI DE L´ORME - CALATAGAN
* MAGIC SKY  - SAINTSAIRE -  CROZAN
* Horses that were 1-2-3-4 last time out are best unless falling
* 33 of the last 37 winners placed last time out
* Horses that were 1-2-3-4-5 on both their last 2 runs also dominate
* Not a trend that can be followed literally but a good run last time is ideal
* The Finishing positions of the last 11 winners of this race are these
* 3rd 5th 2nd Fell Won Won Won 3rd Won 4th 2nd.
* ANDREAS - HOWLE HILL - CROZAN - GREENHOPE fail that
* The race has been dominated by horses that carried 11st or less.
* The last High Weighted winner was in 1998 when Edredon Blue won with 11st 6lbs
* You have to go back 7 years for the last horse to PLACE with 11st 3lbs or more
* LORD HENRY has a worrying weight with 11st 5lbs
* ANDREAS - HOWLE HILL look to be opposable with high weights
* ANDREAS and GREENHOPE have ran once this year and thats another problem
* The last 8 winners were aged 7 8 9 9 5 9 7 8 6
* There has been just 4 Horses aged 10 or more win since the 1940’s
* Only two horses aged 10 or more have placed in the last 9 years
* Out go HASTY PRINCE - GREENHOPE -ALMAYDAN - TIGER CRY
* The issue with HASTY PRINCE is interesting
* He was second in this race last year
* He is now a year older (age 10) and 5lbs higher in the weights
* I wonder if thats just enough to secure his defeat and he is only a
small horse
* TIGER CRY is also a 10 year old
* Since 1991 Horses aged 10 or more that started under 25/1 had a 2-29 record
* Thats not too bad but its what types they wore
* No 10 year old came from 2 miles (0-30) or hurdles (0-4) or with 2
runs that season
* There has been 35 handicap chases in Listed and Graded Class at 2 miles
* Thats between January and April
* Horses aged 10 had a Poor 2-94 record
* When exposed with 13 + runs they had a 0-77 record
* When coming from 2 miles (1-70)  and with under 6 runs that year
(1-66) they struggled
* I know Uncle Ernie won this as a 12 year old (1997) but that race
was ran in a strange pace
* I feel 10 year olds have to be viewed suspiciously and results at
other tracks support that
* HASTY PRINCE and TIGER CRY are therefore opposed
* All 27 horses that dropped from 2m 5f trips or longer were beaten
* GREENHOPE - GWANAKO - HOWLE HILL - MISTER QUASIMODO fail that
* GWANAKO is also apprentice ridden and all 29 apprentices lost in this race
* Between 3 and 5 runs that season is best
* I would stay with runners that had less than 6 runs that year.
* Since 1992 all 67 horses that ran 6 or more times that season lost.
* TRAMANTANO - MAGIC SKY - MISTER QUASIMODO fail that
* TRAMANTANO  can be forgiven for that having finished just 4 of his 7 runs
* You really want a horse that ran within the last 48 days
* All recent winners bar Fota Island in 2005 did so
* If they are English Trained its more important to have run within 7 weeks
* GREENHOPE - ENLIGHTENMENT fail that
* Strongly consider horses with 0-5 Handicap Chase runs
* Strongly consider horses with 3-7 previous races in Novice Chases
* Since 1991 Every winner bar one had previously contested a Graded race.
* The only one that didnt spent most time Racing in France

SHORTLIST

ENLIGHTENMENT (SELECTION)
TRAMANTANO (SELECTION)

MY PETRA -  Danger
MARALAN - Danger

MARALAN with 11st 2lbs wont have an easy task with a Mark of 144 and I feel I have to shortlist her but dont want to select her with the weight.  MY PETRA has to be interesting but there are issues with her First of all I have to deal with the fact she is a 5 year old Mare.  I cant. No 5 year old Mare has ever ran in a 2m Handicap chase in higher than class 3 before. On a point of principle my hunch is it shouldnt be a problem. My own demands for a 5 year old in this race are simple. I am more than happy with them assuming that they have lightweights. What bothers me more is the overweight that Mick Fitzgerald will put up. Go back 7 years . In 2000 Fitzgerald he managed to win the Tote Gold Trophy on Landing Light but he put up overweight and could only do 10st 6lbs and that was 3lbs overweight.  I think that he is likely to do 10st 6lbs and that means that MY PETRA will be racing with approximately 3lbs overweight so to bet her - and dont forget she is the shortest priced horse in the race - then you must think she can win by 2 lengths or more as a rough guide as 3lbs can make a lot of difference and it has to be a major concern. Incidently since Landing Light won Mick Fitzgerald has lost on all 2 horses that were set to carry 10st 4lbs or less. That overweight is a big problem for me.

I fancy ENLIGHTENMENT at 10/1. I am not worried about the 91 day absence. Evan Williams won for us yesterday and has his string in form and he gets them fit. I love his profile. He wouldnt want very soft ground but on good to soft or better he has a serious looking chance and he was being considered for the Arkle on Tuesday. TRAMATANO has a great chance as well and was also being talked out as an Arkle horse. Had injury problems but they were not serious and he came back to win a Novice Chase at Cheltenham after 656 days. TRAMANTANO gave weight and a beating to Marodima - and he has since won a Grade 2 Chase and is rated 148. Yet TRAMANTANO beat him easily and is it not interesting that ENLIGHTENMENT was 3rd that day !! Spooky. I am prepared to forgive TRAMANTANO a few modest runs since. He has slipped in this race off Bottomweight and no better trainer exists for big race preparation than Twiston Davies - This horse has a massive chance.

Unfortunately, none of these two selections really got into the race and so no profit to take home today.

Day 5 P/L = -£20
Total P/L = £47.05
Bank = £1047.05

Mathematician Betting 13/03/08

After a few quiet days, we had an account bet from Mathematician Betting today.

Here’s what he had to say about the selection:

CHELTENHAM 12:30

SELECTION - OLD BENNY Each Way

* This is a 4m Novice Chase - the old National Hunt Chase
* The last 3 winners were 33/1 33/1 and 40/1 + a 25/1 as well 5 years ago
* OULART and DREUX look too exposed to be winning
* No horse like OULART had more than 15 Chase starts
* I dont want to bet any horse that ran within 14 days (1-61 record)
* IN ACCORD and OULART fail that
* Do not bet horses that ran with a 7 week or more absence
* Only the 1998 winner who was different class won this with an absence
* SIZING AUSTRALIA fails that
* You want at least 3 career starts - All winners since 1993 could say that
* SANDHURST fails that and has less experience than every other runner
* That Said I want to keep SANDHURST on my side as he is “Interesting”
* You want at least 4 runs that season
* The only time in 15 years the winner ran fewer than 4 times was in 1998
* Wandering Light ran just twice that year. He was different class that year
* The last 16 winners had the following races in the season they won
* They had 7-4-4-4-5-8-5-6-2-7-7-6-5-10-4-4 previous races that season
* OULART fails that
* BEANTOWN has ran just twice this season but again I want to keep him on side
* MENCHIKOV has ran just once this year and he is out
* PASS IT ON has ran just 3 times but will be respected for connections
* ORNAIS has had only 3 runs and is a 6 year old
* Horses aged  6 have a 0-43 record since 1989.
* This race  looks too tough for them
* ORNAIS - THE KING OF ANGELS - DREUX are 6 year olds
* So to are SHERWOODS FOLLY - SIZING AUSTRALIA
* I want to oppose ORNAIS as a 6 year old and just 3 runs that year
* His worst two runs came at this track and he may be more of an Aintree horse
* His trainer has raised doubts about the Track as well
* OVER THE CREEK was 4th last time in the Reynoldstown beaten 27 lengths
* OVER THE CREEK is reasonably sound statistically despite being a 9 year old
* They dont score that well but they can win
* My objection to OVER THE CREEK is the same as it was for the Reynoldstown
* I hated the fact he came from the Welsh National
* He was 3rd in a hard race for the Welsh National and that may have knocked him back
* He had nothing to offer last time out and I would be wary about that
* Has he left his season behind at Chepstow would be my main worry
* Thats no more than a hunch but I opposed him correctly last time for the same reason.
* NICHE MARKET has two poor runs to put behind him
* Would be worried about his last 2 runs and he isnt from a stable with a festival pedigree
* LEADING AUTHORITY has form closely tied up and has a similar weak chance
* HERES JOHNNY has to put his last run behind him when jumping badly
* 22 of the last 24 winners had a 1-2-3-4 place last time out
* MILLARDS LAD has an outsiders chance much as he isnt the best age
* I cant fault ICE TEA statistically other than failing to place last time
* He isnt totally out of this but he will need a career best

SHORTLIST

BACK ON LINE -BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSKY -SANDHURST

Since 2002 the race conditions have changed. If we take the last 6 winners you will see that all winners came from 25f or shorter. There were no horses that ran over 3m 2f or more last time. That suggests to me these horses are slower and although they look better bets as they have less stamina to find they really are not as they lack the class of the speedier horses. Its almost the same as why 2 milers on the Flat do not win the St Leger despite being the proven stayers. In the last 3 renewals there were 21 horses that ran at 3m 2f or more on their last run
and only 1 of these managed to scrape a place. I am going to follow this in this race and that means ignoring he horses that ran at beyond 25f last time out. These include BACK ON LINE and RIMSKI

* BACK ON LINE had an otherwise excellent profile in my view
* She is a Mare - and comes from a handicap but I am ok with that
* Loving Around (1996) was a Mare that won this from a handicap
* As she ran at over 25f last time I take her on
* She may also need softer ground
* RIMSKY was placed in the Eider Chase last time out
* So to was the 1993 winner (Ushers Island)
* RIMSKY loves soft ground and I wonder if it will be soft enough
* I reject RIMSKY as he ran at 4m last time

This leaves 3

BEANTOWN -OLD BENNY -RIMSKY -SANDHURST

I feel I have to give massive respect to SANDHURST but have to overlook him down to his lack of experience. SANDHURST has inexperience to worry about and thats a big problem. He looks a very interesting prospect and is clearly laid out for this and he looks a horse that has a lot of ability and I wouldnt put it past him to sicken me by winning but he is very inexperienced and has only ran in 1 completed chase as he fell at the last on his second run. BEANTOWN is interesting. He was second in this race in 2006 at 40/1 and that was an excellent run for such an
inexperienced horse. Injury has held him back since but he won well last time and looks a big runner and he’s been  Laid out for the race. What I dont like about him is the fact he is a 10 year old - and has just 2 runs this season.

OLD BENNY is therefore my choice and I am more than happy with him. He is held on form by Ornais last time out but this is a completely different test over a Mile more and I feel that suits me far more and I dont see any reason why this track should be a problem. That risk is factored into his price.

Old Benny was his Each Way selection and ran a great race, winning by seven lengths and putting Mathematician Betting well into the black with an SP of 9/1, however, 14/1 was widely available this morning.

Day 4 P/L = £112.50
Total P/L = £67.05
Bank = £1067.05

Mathematician Betting 12/03/08

I just wanted to post a quick message here to let you know that we haven’t had any account bets from Mathematician Betting since Saturday, which is why I haven’t posted any updates since then. Now that they’ve abandoned Cheltenham there won’t be any bets today either, but I’d imagine there will be over the next two days with 9 races tomorrow and 10 on Friday.

Just in case you didn’t know they’re going to reschedule today’s races and run them tomorrow and Friday instead. I’m pleased that we aren’t going to lose them.

Mathematician Betting 08/03/08

There was no selections from Mathematician Betting on Friday and when that’s the case I’ll just skip posting a message, because there isn’t much fun reading “No Bet” messages

Guy did have one on Saturday and this is what he said….

WOLVERHAMPTON 3:35 - LINCOLN TRIAL STAKES

* This is a 0-105 Handicap
* Its a trial for the Lincoln in March and last years winner ran in this
* This race has been ran 11 times before
* Exposed horses with 21 + runs won just 2 of the 11 renewals
* Most winners were lightly raced
* Exposed horses that were aged 6 or more were 0-47
* TROUBADOUR - WATERSIDE - MR LAMBROS fail that
* MR LAMBROS and WATERSIDE also come from 7f races and few managed that
* Exposed horses that won were very fit with a recent run
* They also all had 3 runs since the start of January
* Exposed horses that did not run within 15 days had a 0-50 record
* PLUM PUDDING has neither a quick run or 3 runs this year
* PLUM PUDDING has ran just once since October
* This race usually goes to a seasonal debutant or a horse with 2 + runs since Jan 1st
* RE BAROLO is exposed and lacks 3 + runs this year but I can forgive him that
* RE BAROLO also comes from 7f and hasnt a great draw and I cant forgive that
* CHARLIE TOKYO is exposed but has a fair chance at 20/1
* BOMBER COMMAND is exposed and hasnt ran enough this year
* CLASSIC PORT with 3 runs would easily be the least experienced winner
* He also does not come from a handicap and no past winners did that
* Horses that did not come from a handicap were 0-33 in the 11 renewals
* CLASSIC PORT- MURFREESBORO - YARQUS - TROUBADOUR -ALFRESCO fail that
* No past winner had ran just once since the turn of the year
* PLUM PUDDING - MURFREESBORO - YARQUS - BOMBER COMMAND fail that
* There are just 2 horses that pass every statistical test
* These are SAMARINDA and DANEHILLSUNDANCE
* I respect SAMARINDA and cant fault him statistically
* I have to bet DANEHILLSUNDANCE from last years winning stable
* He has been absent 126 days (seasonal debutant) but dont let that worry you
* In 1999 the winner (Captain Scott ) had been off far longer and won first time out
* In 2002 the winner (The Prince) won first time out from a longer absence
* In 2002 the winner (Dayglow Dancer ) and the runner up were seasonal debutants
* We have had 3 winners in 11 renewals winning “First time out”
* We have had 6 horses that were second in this race “First time out”
* Vortex in 2004 was second in a photo on his debut that year
* The 2005 runner up was also a seasonal debutant
* This is a race that Seasonal Debutants have a great record in
* DANEHILLSUNDANCE is clearly a serious runner in this
* He looks handicapped to win and I feel he meets horses with problems
* I feel 7/1 is exceptional value

The price was right and I felt the argument he put up for it was excellent, but the horse was stuck out the back and never really looked likely to threaten at any stage in the race.

Day 3 P/L = -£20
Total P/L = -£45.45
Bank = £954.55

Sunday might be a blank day, but with Cheltenham on I’d expect next week to be busy.

Mathematician Betting 06/03/08

Well, Mathematician Betting went in somewhat large today with a split stake 2 point bet in the 2.20pm at Wincanton and I’ve got to admit that both selections were looking particularly strong in the betting with one moving from 3.2 into 2.5 and the other going from 5.9 into 3.9 before the off. Like yesterday’s selection they were backed as if defeat was out of the question, but it wasn’t to be unfortunately.

This is what Guy had to say about the race:

This is a 2m Maiden Hurdle.  I am going to try and oppose DANNY ZUKO the favourite who has had just 1 run before and who also comes from a Bumper. There has been 167 Maiden Hurdles in Febuary and March at under 19 furlongs since 1993. Thats 167 very similar races to this. Had you asked me at the start of Febuary for the best statistic in these 167 races it would have been easy. Horses that had under 4 runs that came from Bumpers had a 0-255 record. Thats a very strong trend but there has been recent signs that I should question it now. After all we had one that won this Febuary (the first in many years) and then a couple of weeks ago another popped in at 33/1 (Quasar D´Oudairies). I think we have to be a bit wary about opposing these horses blindly but however you look at it it has to be a serious concern that DANNY ZUKO has the profile he does. I am taking him on today. DANSIMAR is an unraced 4 year old filly. I cant really rule her out without knowing how talented or not she is but it has to be a concern. Wincanton has had 31 Maiden Hurdles at this time of year. Unraced 4 year olds had a 0-56 record and no unraced winner was female. That suggests DANSIMAR is best opposed. In the 167 maiden hurdles I did find one unraced 4 year old filly (Petite Risk 1998) so it can be done but given the choice I would prefer not to bet one especially as almost every runner has experience in this race. QUANTA DE THAIX is a 4 year old that ran just once and only finished 7th on his debut. He has not done enough for me with that performance. There were 29 horses his age that came from maiden hurdles with 1 run and none of these won and he looks to have a bit too much improvement for comfort. MAE CIGAN looks like a horse that is being handicapped for low grade handicaps and he hasnt shown enough yet to win. RED ADMIRAL was just 10th in his only race and lost by 41 lengths and there are hardly any precedents for horses winning with his profile having been murdered on his only run over hurdles. FLORADORA DO is a Mare and was well beaten in 8th last time and again Mares well beaten have also struggled in these races.

EQUITY RELEASE and ARCHIE GUNN have the best profiles. EQUITY RELEASE would have won last time out had he not fallen at the second last and the horse he would have beaten was 113 rated and thats probably good enough to take this. You can argue he is a winner without a penalty from a top class stable and sets a decent standard against very lightly raced rivals.

You can ignore ARCHIE GUNN’s last race as it was in Listed Class and he started 50/1 and he was running only on his owners instructions. On his previous run he was 2nd in a Ludlow Handicap. That was a 0-120 and thats more than Good enough to win a race like this. That was a significant improvement on his Novice Hurdle form and he has started to look progressive. Back in Maiden Class he is good value around 6/1.

I feel that ARCHIE GUNN and EQUITY RELEASE have a big advantage in experience and in Hurdling craft and I see both dominating. I would be very hopefull that one will beat the Bumper runner (Danny Zuko) and I see it as a very sensible bet to back them both.

Both did run well enough, but the favourite was gunned down by an 11/1 shot in the final furlong.

Day 2 P/L = -£40
Total P/L = -£25.45
Bank = £974.55

He didn’t go into too much detail about the other races today either, so the only race I played in was this one.

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