The Betalay Horse Racing System
I’ve done a lot of research into horse racing systems over the years, so when a system lands on my desk nowadays I’ve normally got a good idea of whether it’s likely to work or not within a couple of minutes of looking at it. Of course, many of the systems I see are just plain junk, but occasionally you come across one that’s worth investigating and that’s what happened to me this week…
The system I’m talking about is The Betalay Horse Racing System and the first thing that hit me about this system is that (a) it appears to be incredibly easy to operate and (b) the advertised profits are incredible…. which is exactly what we’re looking for, if it’s all true!
Before we get started, I’d like you to take a look at this web page.
The reason I want you to look at this first is because I’m going to explain some of the things they’ve done to achieve the spectacular figures they advertise and that way you’ll be in a better position to make an educated decision about whether it’s for you or not.
Secondly, I should tell you that although this is listed under “Betting Books“, the PDF file you download is only 5 pages in size, so don’t expect to have to spend days trawling through chapter upon chapter of information. It’s a simple system that can be easily condensed into 5 pages, but in my opinion that’s a good thing - cut straight to the chase and all that.
Now, as far as systems go, this really is about as simple as they come. There are only three rules involved, you’ll know exactly which races to bet in within seconds of looking at the cards and you only ever lay one - easily identified - horse in each race. The system operates in the last few minutes before each race starting, but you can automate it using Malcolm Pett’s excellent Grey Horse Bot software, so even if you’re working during the day you can easily set it up in the morning and leave the software to do the rest for you on auto-pilot, which is a bonus.
To sum up the benefits:
- It’s VERY easily operated.
- You can completely automate everything.
- The advertised profits will make your mouth water.
That’s all well and good, but now let me get into the nitty gritty of it for you….
I was able to backtest this system, somewhat loosely because the software I used wouldn’t allow me to run reports using the exact odds range they recommend, but I was able to get it pretty close and (in my opinion at least) that’s good enough for our purposes here.
I’m in little doubt that their reports are accurate and that the selections they recommend you lay are 100% correct, but there are two things you need to know about. The first is that the numbers they display on their website don’t include Betfair’s 5% commission (although you’re probably on less than 5%) and the second is that the odds they’ve used are calculated to the industry Starting Price (SP) and not to the higher odds you can expect to lay at on Betfair.
When you factor these in it does have a detrimental effect on the advertised profits, but in my opinion the very worse case scenario would still see you showing a profit every year and the very best scenario - when you lay at as close to SP as possible, with a reduced BF commission rate of say 3.5% - would still see you generating an exceptional profit every year.
From a personal point of view I would attempt to fully automate it, so judging the odds before the off wouldn’t come into the equation, and I’m also on roughly 3.5% commission, so I would expect to be in a position to make a profit of perhaps half of what they advertise every year.
I can’t see how you would ever make the advertised profits, but hey - looking over the last few years it wouldn’t be unrealistic to think that you could make an extra £15K a year doing this and when you combine it with the Grey Horse Bot you can do the whole damn thing on auto-pilot.
That’s all good to me.
Another thing the author recommends is using a “recovery plan” where you attempt to recoup a percentage of any loss on your next four bets and again this is an easy thing to do when you use the Grey Horse Bot. I’m not always keen on these kind of staking plans, but when you consider that the strike-rate of the system is a healthy 88%, I think that in this instance you could (and probably should) use it to boost your profits from the system quite substantially.
All in all, I like The Betalay Horse Racing System and when used in conjunction with the Grey Horse Bot I think you’ll have a consistent, completely automatic, money-maker on your hands.
This is one that I’ll happily recommend…
Until next time,
Online Betting Exposed
I’d definitely say Four The Win Nicky. Your turnover of bets is a lot less than Betalay, but the average odds of the selections is close to even money, so you can operate it with a much smaller bank. The ROI is huge compared to most systems too.
hi paul which system in your opinon do you thinks better for a low bank balance betalay or fourthewin?
Mike, it isn’t a case of not seeing the wood for the trees, because in my original review I said straight away that the results were quoted to SP with no commission included. I followed that up with…
“When you factor these in it does have a detrimental effect on the advertised profits, but in my opinion the very worse case scenario would still see you showing a profit every year and the very best scenario - when you lay at as close to SP as possible, with a reduced BF commission rate of say 3.5% - would still see you generating an exceptional profit every year.”
And that’s all true.
I think the general misconception here is how much the Betfair overlay is on the winning bets. 20% isn’t even close and even 10% is on the high side a lot of the time. Sure, some are higher, but in many cases you can lay at very close to SP and often you can even beat SP.
The size of bank we discussed was mainly geared towards using a loss recovery system. The recommended bank, according to the Betalay manual, is 200 points for level staking.
I’m still not sure about the loss recovery side of things myself. We’ve talked about a lot of different options on here and also the pros and cons of them, but I still don’t know what’s for the best. Like Robert said, following what’s in the manual to the letter at the moment is probably sensible
I used to subscribe to RSB, but haven’t done so in a while and I’m missing the last 4 or 5 years data. John, if you could send me a CSV file with the list of qualifiers for the last 21 years (basically the report RSB outputs) I’ll be happy to take a look at it. Thanks!
I have been following the debate on Betalay with interest and have resisted the temptation to post a comment until now, but am growing increasingly concerned by the failure to see the wood for the trees.
There are inescapable facts to face:-
1. The results are quoted at SP. You need to factor in at least 10% above that for Betfair lays and I have seen the higher odds lays go off at 9.0, 10.0 and sometimes higher.
2. For every unit you win you have to factor in commission; for most that will be at least 4% and probably 5%
3. If you try to operate any form of recovery system you will need a huge bank out of all proportion to the returns, not to mention nerves of steel. Look at January 2008 results and work out how much you would have to risk just to recover the overlay!
No-one has addressed the comments of Graham, and Tsiri posted on 3rd April. Most damning of all are the comments of John on 3rd April. Does anyone have an answer? Bear in mind people have been discussing banks of 2000 units. If the average gain is 44 points per year that is a profit of £88 on £4000 and you have been at it 7 days a week for 52 weeks a year.
Finally, let me say I really wanted this system to work. I have tried many variations over 2 years and many staking systems using printouts of the results. I cannot make a worthwhile profit from it. Someone may prove me wrong. If you think it can work I wish you luck, but sadly I see it ending in tears.
We all would like to find an easy way to make extra cash but I have learned that the only way is hours of study with the form books.
Hi, you can’t escape the fact that statistically this Betalay system gets it right more than 88% of the time. Before I bought it I analysed ALL of their results from 2007, I can tell you that they hit the 88% strike rate spot on, and the average price of their losin bets (i.e. if the horse won) was LESS than 6/1. Based on these figures I bought Betalay in January and I’ve been running it for almost 3 months now. I agree it DOES have its ups and downs, but if you stick with it you will see the profits build up, and because of the strike rate the losing runs never get TOO scary! I don’t bet to big stakes but I know a few professional gamblers who do, and they always tell me that this game is about low margins and high turnover (i.e. if you can bet £1million a year with a 5% profit margin you’ll be doing pretty well - £50k profit tax-free). Just look at the bookies overround on each market! I stopped lookin for a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow a long time ago, I just use a few simple systems to top up my pension. I’m happy with the performance I’ve seen from Betalay, long may it continue.
Patrick, I concur.
I’ve no idea what some of the posts on here are talking about.
I’ve been using the Betalay system since last October and can’t praise it enough. It simple, it’s easy to follow and it’s easy to automate.
If you follow the instructions to the letter you can’t go wrong. I had one or two queries to begin with (mainly due to my ignorance) but in all fairness I got a fairly prompt reply from Jack at Betalay and I was on the right track straight away.
It seems that some people either think they know better or are too greedy to stick to the rules.
I’ve had 6 profitable months from Betalay (albeit at low stakes).
Hi Paul I made a mistake on this posting the figures are wrong here is the email with the proper figures.
Ive only read the last couple of postings and I don`t have time to go back and find out where all this talk obout loss recovery came from so please excuse my ignorance if im wrong.
I bought this system with my brother last week and as I was testing out Format Method I left him too it. He had increased his bank by 225 ex commision using just €5 bets in 5 days and lost it all plus €70 on the 6th day. He was using a loss recovery system that he said was in the system. I read over the system and at no point does it say you should try to recover your loss. What it says is if you want to have comparable results to their records you should recover the sp overlay. 2 completely different things. At the rate he was going he would have been bringing in about 17000 after commision a year using only €5 bets. The system itself only proclaims to make around 24000 using £25 bets.
I bought the system via an e-mail that Betalay sent me offering a 25% discount and a link to make payment. Their webpage states that there is an 88% strike rate for losers with a maximum price cap of 8/1 and give their profits to flat betting stakes but obviously don`t say what the average price for winning horses are. The system is simple and taking a price of 6/1 say and betfair commission at 5% then according to my calculations at £10 stakes the profit over 100 bets is £880 - £44 =£836 minus the winners where (according to Adrian Masseys website) 6/1 sp would return 7.0 (without stake) on betfair , therefore the 12 losers would be £840- making a loss. In my opinion the strike rate needs to be higher for flat betting and the only way to make a profit is by progressive staking to recover losses and that`s not for me. I requested a return but was told that unless the order was placed directly through their website there would be no return and was given a link to their terms and conditions .
@ Elaine - All we’ve been doing here is having an open discussion about the pros and cons of loss recovery and most of us took onboard your earlier comments on the subject, so to suggest that everyone here bar you is naive and that Craig and I haven’t been upfront about everything is rather offensive and plainly untrue. I actually spent the best part of a day sourcing software that would allow us to operate in the exact manner YOU suggested earlier this week. So, yes, we’re listening, but we’d probably all take you much more seriously if you refrained from throwing around wild accusations and backed up the numbers you quote with some verifiable evidence.
@ Drew - You can’t use Betfair’s SPs to form any realistic conclusions. I’ve mentioned elsewhere on this site that their SPs are often crazy, normally in favour of backers, so you would be far better to use industry SP plus a percentage. I’ve ran reports over the last 15 years results and I can confirm, without any hesitation at all, that every single year has produced a profit. I also know for a fact that the % over SP is nowhere near 20% for these particular runners - it’s generally no worse than 10-12% - so you aren’t bursting anyone’s bubble here by quoting one day’s results and referencing Betfair’s pie-in-the-sky SPs
Hi
I came across this site recently and am alarmed like Elaine (2 april above)
Any gaming analysis proves no progression can overturn a negative expectation whether random, sportsbetting, whatever. Unless this lay system filters in a positive edge then automating it with a progression is eventual suicide.
I agree absolutely with Elaine’s comments and doubt this method has what it takes to overcome the lay defecit and negative expectation in a odds zone where betfair is often 40%+ adrift of SP. Face it if it were that simple many of us would have been doing it years ago. Level stakes and see if you can get ahead or not long term.
Andy on April 2nd, 2008 8:03 pm Drew
Why do you say that level stakes will not work. If your setting the bot to place you bet a few seconds before the off, surely there would be little difference between the SP and the odds you get.
Hi Andy, I don’t want to burst your bubble but here’s all you need to know.
1: Look up the results for betalay (just for 2008). Now look at the ones that came 1st (losing lays)
http://s158156554.websitehome.co.uk/45924/RESULTS2008.pdf
2: Use this link to surf the betfair results.
http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/# (click on the right hand tab)
3: Now compare the betfair sp vs the bookie sp
4: Remember that each winning lay is only worth 0.95 due to commission
I looked up January 2nd 2008. OUCH!
Hi all,
Sorry I’ve not been on for a couple of days, work beckons.
Paul, thanks for your response to my last post, much appreciated.
Andy, yes I have a couple of different bank accounts / credit cards, so I can fund betfair from different sources if / when necessary in order to operate more than one betfair account.
Personally,I have noticed that quite a few of my bets laid with the bot would not be qualifying bets at SP due to the odds changing in the last few seconds before the off.There is no way around this unless I suppose you are willing to sit at the computer all day placing the bets manually.
Therefore,results with the bot will never be a true reflection of the systems results at SP,so only time will tell if this has an adverse effect on overall profits(or losses)!!Maybe too many people are now using this system which is bound to have some influence on results I suppose.
Does anyone else have an opinion on this?
Drew
Why do you say that level stakes will not work. If your setting the bot to place you bet a few seconds before the off, surely there would be little difference between the SP and the odds you get.
Matthew -yes - we are getting a little miffed too with the poor results. We seem to have been going in circles since we started March 16 (after an initial good start) but now our banks are back to square 1.
Sods’s law I guess. Be interesting to see the March results.
Jack did admit the “markets had been choppy”.
If I’m not mistaken the advice is to recover the sp to betfair overlay? This is a far more realistic
propostion and is far less agressive and could be done over a 5 race loss revovery with less risk. Anyone level staking this will eventually end up in the poorhouse as will the full loss recovery afficionados.
Using a bot will not follow the same selections as the sp system. The only way to accurately follow this is to use the “live show” odds services just before the off. And to recover the betfair overlay on losing bets as they happen. If you come across 2 qualifiers in the same race you have three choices, pick one, both or none.
Another way to do this is to split your original bank into 4 mini banks and program the bot to recover the losses on 1 mini bank until a: The bank depletes b: the bank doubles. if you can double the mini bank four times then you will have 8 banks to cushion you from the poorhouse and then you might think about making some risk free money. When you lose a bank or two (and you will) it won’t matter too much because you have backup banks.
The losing run may not come for a long time but as sure as eggs is eggs it will arrive.
Elaine
I take on board your comments but if you look back over the thread generally you will see that we have exhausted this. There are comments from Betalay re staking and our own views. I posted on this on more than one occasion and specifically referred to the WLWLWLWLWLW sequence. Paul agreed with me about staking. Essentially, I don’t think anyone on this site endorsed staking after it was debated so I have no criticism of OBE.
Re the poor results over the last few days. I can confirm that my own results were positive but the last 2 days have depleted the bank. 3 losing bets so far today. However, these things do work in cycles so I am not concerned yet.
Please post your stats on how that works Elaine. The losing sequence I mean. I worked it out and didn’t come up with the same figures as you.
Can you explain how you’ve lost 4 days in a row? I started at the same time as you and I’ve not. Please post your daily totals so we can compare. Thanks!
I’ve been reading the forum and decided to buy the betalay system and greyhorse bot.After testing,I started live on Sunday.I’ve stuck to the bot parameters rigidly but,with a few races left tonight,even if I win the lay bets,I’ll be down again for the day and down every day since I started live.That’s four days straight and I’m down 24 points already..I don’t know about the truth of the claims and results posted on betalays main site.I think they may be glossing over a lot and ignoring the fact that it doesn’t perform live as well as on ppaper,in theory with S.P. quoted and commision for betfair ommited.I also think the bot is all over the shop at times and is occasionally selecting the wrong nag. I’m not looking to even get half of the point wins they claim in an average month - 15 points a month would do me fine or about 180-200 per year.I only hope the system can deliver this and believe that I got off to an unlucky start.I thankfully only began with $2 stakes to test it out.
I agree with the poster who warns of progressions.They are truly frightening and the idea of busting thousands of pounds chasing an initial small stake loss is terrifying.If a truly horrendous bad run happened, even a huge sum could be under threat and the bets would’nt get taken anyway.I think flat betting is the only way to go and as I said 15 points a month would do me fine.Thats way below the average yearly point that betalay boast,only about 25-30% of it but I’d take it.
Any suggestions about optimum bot tweaking would be great and further tips.My bankroll will be 200 points as recommended.I.Hope to hear how you are all doing with the system
Matthew