The Betalay Horse Racing System
I’ve done a lot of research into horse racing systems over the years, so when a system lands on my desk nowadays I’ve normally got a good idea of whether it’s likely to work or not within a couple of minutes of looking at it. Of course, many of the systems I see are just plain junk, but occasionally you come across one that’s worth investigating and that’s what happened to me this week…
The system I’m talking about is The Betalay Horse Racing System and the first thing that hit me about this system is that (a) it appears to be incredibly easy to operate and (b) the advertised profits are incredible…. which is exactly what we’re looking for, if it’s all true!
Before we get started, I’d like you to take a look at this web page.
The reason I want you to look at this first is because I’m going to explain some of the things they’ve done to achieve the spectacular figures they advertise and that way you’ll be in a better position to make an educated decision about whether it’s for you or not.
Secondly, I should tell you that although this is listed under “Betting Books“, the PDF file you download is only 5 pages in size, so don’t expect to have to spend days trawling through chapter upon chapter of information. It’s a simple system that can be easily condensed into 5 pages, but in my opinion that’s a good thing - cut straight to the chase and all that.
Now, as far as systems go, this really is about as simple as they come. There are only three rules involved, you’ll know exactly which races to bet in within seconds of looking at the cards and you only ever lay one - easily identified - horse in each race. The system operates in the last few minutes before each race starting, but you can automate it using Malcolm Pett’s excellent Grey Horse Bot software, so even if you’re working during the day you can easily set it up in the morning and leave the software to do the rest for you on auto-pilot, which is a bonus.
To sum up the benefits:
- It’s VERY easily operated.
- You can completely automate everything.
- The advertised profits will make your mouth water.
That’s all well and good, but now let me get into the nitty gritty of it for you….
I was able to backtest this system, somewhat loosely because the software I used wouldn’t allow me to run reports using the exact odds range they recommend, but I was able to get it pretty close and (in my opinion at least) that’s good enough for our purposes here.
I’m in little doubt that their reports are accurate and that the selections they recommend you lay are 100% correct, but there are two things you need to know about. The first is that the numbers they display on their website don’t include Betfair’s 5% commission (although you’re probably on less than 5%) and the second is that the odds they’ve used are calculated to the industry Starting Price (SP) and not to the higher odds you can expect to lay at on Betfair.
When you factor these in it does have a detrimental effect on the advertised profits, but in my opinion the very worse case scenario would still see you showing a profit every year and the very best scenario - when you lay at as close to SP as possible, with a reduced BF commission rate of say 3.5% - would still see you generating an exceptional profit every year.
From a personal point of view I would attempt to fully automate it, so judging the odds before the off wouldn’t come into the equation, and I’m also on roughly 3.5% commission, so I would expect to be in a position to make a profit of perhaps half of what they advertise every year.
I can’t see how you would ever make the advertised profits, but hey - looking over the last few years it wouldn’t be unrealistic to think that you could make an extra £15K a year doing this and when you combine it with the Grey Horse Bot you can do the whole damn thing on auto-pilot.
That’s all good to me.
Another thing the author recommends is using a “recovery plan” where you attempt to recoup a percentage of any loss on your next four bets and again this is an easy thing to do when you use the Grey Horse Bot. I’m not always keen on these kind of staking plans, but when you consider that the strike-rate of the system is a healthy 88%, I think that in this instance you could (and probably should) use it to boost your profits from the system quite substantially.
All in all, I like The Betalay Horse Racing System and when used in conjunction with the Grey Horse Bot I think you’ll have a consistent, completely automatic, money-maker on your hands.
This is one that I’ll happily recommend…
Until next time,
Online Betting Exposed
Paul, I’d also like to echo that the issue of Betfair SP really isn’t as huge as some people are making out. If Betfair’s odds were so significantly higher than the bookies - then why isn’t everybody backing on Betfair? The bookies are still doing massive business, their business has increased considerably (read the financial pages: betfred, bet365 are relative newcomers (online) and they’ve got enormous turnover). Betfair will hype their SP, because it’s their unique selling point. As a layer I have to say I get matched at pretty close to the bookies SP, and whenever I’m backing I don’t see much advantage in going with Betfair and paying commission when Hills etc. will give me similar odds (unless I’m backing something at 20/1+)
Nicky, working off the results on the website, in March there was 28 bets, the strike-rate was 75% (on selections that are generally around the 1/1 mark!) and the profit to £100 stakes was £1878.
That’s a ROI of 67%….. which is HUGE!
So far I have found the system to be fantastic and I agree wholeheartedly with Paul and Craig as I see no reason for change. Maybe the difference people find though is by using a bot. I am doing it manually taking the SP selection from the tv literally as they go off .This in some cases can be different on betfair. I am doing loss recovery whereby I am recovering my full loss over 5 races.If and when it happens I will stop at 3 losses. If this happens I will start again. This will ensure you will only ever lose 83 pts and thats at the 8/1,9.0 limit ,in reality the prices are a lot lower!!!!!. With this method say for example 10 (usually more) qualifing races per day then thats 10 pts profit. U dont get 3 losers in a row every 8.3 days-anyway just my thoughts.
@Jono
Hi m8. It’s a system that’s been tested but there is no release date yet. It’s name is the fp system, don’t ask me why. When I find out more I’ll post up or let Paul know to give it a test on here.
Scott, this system isn’t backfitted - I can assure you of that - and if you were following it manually the selections would normally be as clear as day. Using a bot to do it is something most of us are choosing to do, rather than being an essential component of the system itself, and for the luxury of not having to sit at the PC all day we may have to pay with slightly different results. Personally I think this will even itself out and recovering the overlay will probably combat that anyway.
idont think laybot Or GHB will have a problem with upgrading because theres alot of people on this forum and im sure quite a few would like an update.
you mean £400 profit right?. In how long did it taketoo get that?. Im probably too quick for money but i dont get why this system is soo good in your opinons Paul and Drew?
In the main I agree with Drew’s points from 10:26pm below.
“Therefore the results quoted on the betalay site are meaningless. It’s one thing to copy the results and another to actually be putting wonga down on a lay. The two won’t be compatible.”
That point is so true, and let me explain how using an example of a race I looked at from today:
- I was looking at the Betfair market, not the SPs
- This race went off slightly late.
- Following the Betfair market would have meant you had one clear choice until approx 1 minute before the off, when another nag then became the selection. I have no doubt that anyone using a bot will have one of these two as a selection. Remember though I am just looking at Betfair prices.
- The reality is, however, that neither of those two flip-flopping horses will be an official system pick according to the rules (see para 6 on page 5 for confirmation). This is unfortunate for some as one of them won.
- I will post more specific details if required.
If the system was easy to operate a screenshot of the days P&L from betalay would be nice. The reality is, that it is very easy to back fit a list of results to fit a set of rules. A look at previous posts on here will show that there have been lots of different results depending on what time people enter the market and what prices they take.
GL if you use it. Not for me though!
@ Drew
Look out for the fp system that’s due out soon. Its a stop at a winner loss recovery thang. I’ve seen a test on another forum and the results look promising.
What is fp? What product?
Cheers,
Jono
@ Nicky - ROI is return on investment. The bank started at £1000, using £25 stakes and is now sitting at just short of £400. That’s very, VERY, good, especially when you consider the odds of the selections is around the even money mark. It’s impressed me no end.
@ Drew - I’m with you about the overlay evening out part, but if BF’s SPs are higher on the whole, which according to Betfair they are, and some differ wildy then it isn’t a completely true reflection of what was happening before the off. What you’ve done is a decent guideline though and useful to know all the same.
@ Andy/Jono - thanks
I only got home tonight after being away for a few days and I’ve got loads to clear up, but I might try contacting the guys from Lay Bot Pro and also GHB in the next day or two to see if we can get an additional feature added to accomodate what we’re talking about.
P.S. The four the win system looks good (not sure bout system B) part as it’s mostly
untested. Nicky, Imagine having 5large on each of the four the win lays.
The frontline lay system is brilliant but time consuming. (nothing in life is free though)
Trainer flat stats is also a winner provided you get the staking right.
False favs is a great read.
Look out for the fp system that’s due out soon. Its a stop at a winner loss recovery thang. I’ve seen a test on another forum and the results look promising.
I think we need to put things into perspective here, and offer some support to Paul and Craig (whose impartial advice is genuinely appreciated on here).
I am sure that Paul’s intentions are honourable, and I don’t think it helps any of our causes if people post derogatory remarks about Paul and/or this site’s integrity.
Clearly, for whatever reason/s some people have had significant success using betalay and others haven’t. I for one have had success, but would like to perhaps tweak the system itself and/or staking in order to make further headway and protect myself from a losing run.
As Jock points out this business is all about percentages, and I think what Paul originally stated in his review is very fair: “I would expect to be in a position to make a profit of perhaps half of what they advertise every year.”
If anyone has any positive comments on staking I for one would love to hear from you.
Anyway, how did we all do today?
A clean sweep from our qualifiers at Aintree: 6 points profit
Only 1 qualifier at Leicester, but a good one at that : 1 point profit
4 qualifiers at Taunton, all got beaten : 4 points profit
5 qualifiers tonight at Kempton, 4 knew the script but the last clearly didn’t : 2.2 points loss
So I ended the day 8.8 points better off, thank you betalay (and Paul and Craig).
lol i know i might sound a bit dumb but what does ROI mean (return on investment?) . your bank increased 40 percent which part?. I can’t see that in your results. where did your bank start and where is it at now?.
Paul, I understand about bfsp. But you’ll also notice there were
horses going off at under the sp and in my book this balances
the equation. The spreadsheet shows an average of just over 14%
overlay which is reasonable given the lay prices.
The spreadsheet shows a loss to bfsp, but just by recovering the overlay
a healthy 40 points profit was achieved. I personally think that doing
this manually whenever you had time to do so would show a profit
provided you recovered the overlay. Perhaps recovering 14% of the total amount
of any losing lays would be the best way to automate the “bot version” of the system.
Your thoughts?
Also I have the ebook from False Favourite and they are absolutely world class. I have learn a lot of secret things from them. It made me feel like a professional betting. I would recommended you guys!
Cheers,
Jono
I would say I agree with Paul about the four the win. They are simple the best!
Joe from the four the win are extremely helpful and would always reply at every time. I have always satisfied when they answered my questions. All I think that Four the win is one of surprising package on the betting market!
You should grab this beauty ebook or email services. I have not bought his ebook yet but I use their email service. (Save my time and hassle!)
Cheers,
Jono
Nicky, the ROI is huge on these bets (which is the important part) and the bank has increased by almost 40% using a stake of 2.5% of the starting bank. That’s pretty impressive in my book. It’s performed better than any other laying system we’ve tested on here by some way!
thanx paul. I took a look at your fourthewin section and the profits are not much for the period of time it has been tested.
Thanks Drew - that’s very helpful! You must have put a fair bit of time into that
The only thing that bothers is me is the same as I said earlier - using Betfair’s SPs isn’t going to give us a true reflection, because they’re often wildly different to what was actually happening before the start of the race. The guys from Betfair have posted here before to say that their SPs are 33% higher than the industry standard, compared to their previous 20% claim on all prices, so that alone worries me with regards to laying at their SP odds. On top of that, I’ve seen horses that were trading at 7.2 before the off being returned as high as 25.0 before (I actually backed that one at BF’s SP) so it isn’t really all that accurate.
That besides, what you’ve said about the recovery on the overlay is certainly interesting!
Thanks,
~ Paul
O.k. Guys, I decided to look at Jan 08 and came to some sound conclusions.
1: You won’t replicate the exact system with a bot because a: The selection on betfair won’t match the on-course sp selections most of the time.
2: Part of the profit is achieved from laying multiple runners in one race. E.g. There will be joint and co. qualifiers using on-course sp.
I would also suggest that the Betalay team don’t lay those selections either. The results quoted come from copying the qualifiers from the racing post results.
Therefore the results quoted on the betalay site are meaningless. It’s one thing to copy the results and another to actually be putting wonga down on a lay. The two won’t be compatible.
The system can be done manually using the live betting shows at the last few moments before the off. To do this will require betting on every qualifier in every race every day. you will need to lay more than one runner if there are qualifiers. And you will need to be be able to bet in 5 minute intervals when there is loads of racing on. Finally you’ll need to work out the overlay on any winners and recover the losses as you go. Hmmm, sounds easy.
However, it’s not all doom and gloom. I would think that if you can recover the overlay using loss recovery then you have a winning system no matter which way your selections are arrived at (provided your strike rate is high enough).
Take a look at the spreadsheet and you’ll get the picture
http://senduit.com/43f309 (link will expire in 1 week)