The Betalay Horse Racing System
I’ve done a lot of research into horse racing systems over the years, so when a system lands on my desk nowadays I’ve normally got a good idea of whether it’s likely to work or not within a couple of minutes of looking at it. Of course, many of the systems I see are just plain junk, but occasionally you come across one that’s worth investigating and that’s what happened to me this week…
The system I’m talking about is The Betalay Horse Racing System and the first thing that hit me about this system is that (a) it appears to be incredibly easy to operate and (b) the advertised profits are incredible…. which is exactly what we’re looking for, if it’s all true!
Before we get started, I’d like you to take a look at this web page.
The reason I want you to look at this first is because I’m going to explain some of the things they’ve done to achieve the spectacular figures they advertise and that way you’ll be in a better position to make an educated decision about whether it’s for you or not.
Secondly, I should tell you that although this is listed under “Betting Books“, the PDF file you download is only 5 pages in size, so don’t expect to have to spend days trawling through chapter upon chapter of information. It’s a simple system that can be easily condensed into 5 pages, but in my opinion that’s a good thing - cut straight to the chase and all that.
Now, as far as systems go, this really is about as simple as they come. There are only three rules involved, you’ll know exactly which races to bet in within seconds of looking at the cards and you only ever lay one - easily identified - horse in each race. The system operates in the last few minutes before each race starting, but you can automate it using Malcolm Pett’s excellent Grey Horse Bot software, so even if you’re working during the day you can easily set it up in the morning and leave the software to do the rest for you on auto-pilot, which is a bonus.
To sum up the benefits:
- It’s VERY easily operated.
- You can completely automate everything.
- The advertised profits will make your mouth water.
That’s all well and good, but now let me get into the nitty gritty of it for you….
I was able to backtest this system, somewhat loosely because the software I used wouldn’t allow me to run reports using the exact odds range they recommend, but I was able to get it pretty close and (in my opinion at least) that’s good enough for our purposes here.
I’m in little doubt that their reports are accurate and that the selections they recommend you lay are 100% correct, but there are two things you need to know about. The first is that the numbers they display on their website don’t include Betfair’s 5% commission (although you’re probably on less than 5%) and the second is that the odds they’ve used are calculated to the industry Starting Price (SP) and not to the higher odds you can expect to lay at on Betfair.
When you factor these in it does have a detrimental effect on the advertised profits, but in my opinion the very worse case scenario would still see you showing a profit every year and the very best scenario - when you lay at as close to SP as possible, with a reduced BF commission rate of say 3.5% - would still see you generating an exceptional profit every year.
From a personal point of view I would attempt to fully automate it, so judging the odds before the off wouldn’t come into the equation, and I’m also on roughly 3.5% commission, so I would expect to be in a position to make a profit of perhaps half of what they advertise every year.
I can’t see how you would ever make the advertised profits, but hey - looking over the last few years it wouldn’t be unrealistic to think that you could make an extra £15K a year doing this and when you combine it with the Grey Horse Bot you can do the whole damn thing on auto-pilot.
That’s all good to me.
Another thing the author recommends is using a “recovery plan” where you attempt to recoup a percentage of any loss on your next four bets and again this is an easy thing to do when you use the Grey Horse Bot. I’m not always keen on these kind of staking plans, but when you consider that the strike-rate of the system is a healthy 88%, I think that in this instance you could (and probably should) use it to boost your profits from the system quite substantially.
All in all, I like The Betalay Horse Racing System and when used in conjunction with the Grey Horse Bot I think you’ll have a consistent, completely automatic, money-maker on your hands.
This is one that I’ll happily recommend…
Until next time,
Online Betting Exposed
Hi, wonder if anyone can help. Ive been doing betalay for a few weeks, and as yet i havent adopted the overlay recovery plan, to eliminate the difference in sp and betfair prices. I wonder if someone could explain something to me. Say i am placing £5 stakes, and a horse wins, and the odds in the bookies are 8/1, but i laid in betfair at say 11. The difference in liability is hence is £5, so 25% of this is and extra £1.25 over 4 bets or £6.25. Ok i get this bit, but say over the next 4 bets, a horse wins again, and say again the bookies price was 8/1 and i laid the horse at 11. What is my new stake to be for the next four bets? Do i say the liability at the bookies is 6.25 (my new stake) x 8 = 50 or do i use my original stake to calculate my liability i.e £5 x8 =£40. I just cant work it out, and if anyone can give me an example with figures that would be good.
Thanks
Hi Guys
That’s me finished for the week finally concluded my 50 races - with the 15.55 at perth (rathowen). 44 winners exactly 88% strike rate & a profit of £83.93 on a £10 stake plan not bad, but will have to up the stakes shortly or use a recovery plan to make some decent money !!
Have a nice weekend all
Cheers
Mark - b -
Andrew, I’ve got it set to recoup over 5 and stop at 4 winners, but I’m going to try and get a chance to look at the Excel integration in Grey Horse Bot over the next few days to see how difficult it would be to set it up to follow the advice in the book exactly, recouping only the 20% overlay. I’m okay with Excel, but only okay, so I’m not sure whether I’ll be able to do it or not.
Failing that, the next version of Lay Bot Pro should have everything we need to operate it exactly like this. Preferably I would rather do it with GHB as I already use it for a lot of different things.
Paul,at the moment I am using the GHB staking set to 1 and also to stop after 4 losers(horses that win) in a row.I know it is risky to recover losses after each race but the chances of having 4 losers in a row with Betalay are pretty slim are they not?
I see you have your staking set to 5 which is obviously far less aggressive,but you are far more susceptible to one of those horrible runs where you get a winner followed by a couple of losers,then 2 winners,then a loser and so on.Until you actually get your 5 winners in a row(which does happen most days I might add),you could be going on for a long time to recover your stakes.On the flip side I suppose you are less likely to crash and burn,whereas I am constantly looking over my shoulder for that evil 4 timer!Out of interest do you stop after 3 or 4 losers in a row?
I need some convincing but I just might come over to your way of thinking before it’s too late.
Cheers.
@ Billy - it isn’t a con. They make it quite clear that the odds are quoted to SP and that you should aim to lay as close to SP as possible. It’s all kind of upfront, to be honest.
Something else you all need to think about here is that using “averages” isn’t an accurate way of looking at it at all. I went back through the last two years of Betfair historical data before writing this review and I can tell you for a fact that the overlay on the winners (which is the important part - the losers don’t matter a jot) is pretty damn close to SP a lot of the time. On occassion it is actually possible to lay at SP, or very close to it, too.
If you read back through all of the comments on here you’ll see that we’ve worked this out in more depth than anyone else I’ve ever seen publish anything about it and if you follow the suggested staking plan, where you aim to recoup 20% of a previous loss, the results will completely blow you away. And that’s a fairly non-aggressive staking plan too.
I’ve never posted a single word on this site without looking at all of the facts first. I never work off averages, or speculative assumptions, when I’m looking at systems. There isn’t any point in that because it’s always innaccurate, so everything you read here is based on actual facts.
Graeme
I agree with you, there is no way one can obtain odds better than SP just before the off.Maybe an odd one will be obtainened and this is why they base the results to sp.Like you say given the strike rate and the Betfair odds it makes profits at the very best low.There are many systems that can show a profit to SP the key is finding one that shows a profit to Betfair odds and this is why Betalay show the results to SP which I think is a bit of a con.
Billy
Hi Graham
Yep sorry my maths Is not what it used to be !!
If you bet only 50 races per week then yes - on a £10 stake with ave. odds of 7.0 (6/1) less 5% comm. you would make £3016 & for £30 it’s £9048.
The only way to make guaranteed income is arborage opps. or trading - laying low & backing high on horses mainly the favs. a few mins. before the off.
I still recommend the betalay system & truly believe we can all make some money, but nothing like mentioned on their website. !!
YS
Mark - b -
ps. The only way to make a full time income is to use a £50. stake plan VERY RISKY THOUGH !!
The system’s rule state to lay in the very last minute before the off, so obviously if he’s laying regularly at price lower than SP on Betfair, its by taking the price inrunning.
Hiya Andy
Glad you`ve found how to lay at less than SP. Could you tell me do do lay before or after the off.
Graham,
I regularly lay at prices LOWER than SP on Betfair and I factor in commission with my stakes (as per the advice given by Betalay) and I can tell you that at £10 stakes I’m making alot more than £58 a week.
Andy
Mark
At 88% SR
44 x £10 stakes = £440 minus £22 (5% commission) = £418
6 x £60 (6 losing bets at average 6/1) =£360
———
Total £58
£58 x 52 weeks equals £3016 and £7540 to £25 stakes
I don`t know whether it was me you were referring to with regards to the calculations but I checked the results over a 6 months period taken from prices given on the website and the average price returned was 6/1 SP ,but there is no way that you can lay at the Sp price if laying just before the off. I worked the overlayed price of 6/1sp at 7/1(which is the price given on the Adrian Massey site and in my opinion a true reflection).
Graham
Graham
Hi Craig
Yep £12400 a year “tax free” is worth considering on a full time basis. I couldn’t quite understand how that other guy got all mixed up with the figures, it’s so easy to work out …
even for me
Mark
Hi Mark,
Paul mentioned in his review above that the results quoted on the Betalay website were to SP and without Commission, and his review took that into consideration.
Still, £12,400 tax free ain’t too shabby
Hi There
I’ve just recently bought the betalay system & things seem to be working out at the 88% mark as quoted on their website
The thing that I did’nt care for too much, was the fact that they use the lesser SP & not a mention of the average 5% comm. with Betfair (quite misleading for novices) !!
I think realistically your looking at a proft of £4160 pa on £10 stakes & £12400 pa on £25 stakes - based on betting 50 races a week with 44 being successful, with an av. start price of 7.0 or 6/1 & ofcourse the inevitable av. 5% comm. rate !!
So too some up - we can all make a profit based on the 88% strike rate, but certainly not the profits mentioned on their website, more like half the amount.
** To make a profit on laying, you need a 85% stike rate anything less is no good !! **
Cheers
Mark
Graeme - have a look at the settings in the Grey Horse Bot as you can always set it to try and get matched at better than the available odds.
As an amendment to what I wrote earlier. I am beginning to get a bit fed up with the auto bet as it seems to be firing very close to the higher odds which is damaging my profits. Bad day again today with another loss which has now been the third in a row. Just arrived from work to see three winning selections gave a 11 point loss in total. Just wondering if the System is worth the bother really.
Looking through the site the profits look fantastic but i really would prefer to see real selections with the EP (Exchange Price) and commission included.
On reflection I think this is one for live betting and a stop at a profit rule and not for auto betting.
Andrew, I don’t tick that so if there’s a winner and the race hasn’t been settled it skips that as far as the staking is concerned and starts it on the next race after it has been settled. It isn’t ideal, but it’s the only way I know of to cover every race.
Paul,
When using the staking with GHB and Betalay do you tick the box ‘ignore race if profit loss not settled’,or just let the bot bet in every valid race?
I have noticed that if races are say 10 minutes apart and you have the bot to stop at first winner for example,then even if the first race did win for you it would still bet on the next race as the P/L had not yet been settled into the Betfair account.This might have some effect on any staking plan being used,so what would you do here Paul?
Cheers.
I wrote this to the writer of the Betalay system. I only use straight stakes at present but will think about adding the staking but only one very tiny stakes and see what happens but in the meantime this is what i wrote .
Testimonial: I am a total moron. I knew about your system a long time ago but did nothing about it and because of this i have missed out on earning thousands something I now regret. I would urge anyone thinking of purchasing this system to BUY IT NOW. This is not a cost but an investment in my book. I am a minimum wager and it took me a long time to just get £200 in my betfair account. Afer a long time i took the plunge and brought the Betalay system. I had to start on just £2 betfair minimum and to my utter amazement I got my purchase price back in just three DAYS!!!! using the Auto-bot software. Needless to say this really IS an income for life system and I will continue with this system until I am making enough per day that I can finally think about dumping my minimum wage job (More so now Gordon has scrapped the 10p tax band). To just say Thank you for an amazingly simple system that ACTUALLY WORKS just does not seem enough somehow.
Hi Mark,
What you say about the staking feature in GHB is correct and I think you’re making a wise decision to drop the stakes and use the staking feature. Somewhere within the last 15 pages of comments we’ve talked in depth about this and some of us spent a lot of time going through past results, looking at the stats and working out worse case scenarios when using the staking feature. The general concensus was that a bank of 1500-2000 points would be high enough to cover the worse case scenario, which has only happened 2-3 times in 8 years, with the proviso that you set the bot to stop trading after 4 consecutive winners (losers for us).
There has been periods, lots of them, where you could go like this for a year or more at a time and barely have an anxious moment, so the profits fairly build up, but I’d still have to stress that it’s a low stakes game when you’re using the recovering staking feature.
Something else I should mention is that the recovery plan they describe in the Betalay book is that you only recoup 20% of the loss after a winner, so you’re basically aiming to recoup the worse case scenario increased odds on Betfair. This is a far less aggressive approach than what we’re doing with the Grey Horse Bot and if we could automate that I would. Now that GHB has Excel integration it should be possible (haven’t looked at that yet) but the next version of Lay Bot Pro - which is due out soon - will enable us to do this. If we go down this route, which I definitely will, then it will be far easier to use increased stakes with Betalay and I can assure you that the profits (based on the last 8 year’s historical data) are incredible.
All in all, Betalay is a numbers game, with no form study involved, and when we can automate the non-aggressive form of the recovery plan that I’ve just described, especially, the profits should go through the roof. In the meantime, I’d continue with what you’re doing, but I think everyone who wants to fully automate it should consider this when it’s possible.
Craig’s just posted to say about Four The Win. You should maybe check the book again, because this has been a great week for it. In fact, we’ve yet to see a bad week with that
~ Paul