The Fancy Fillies System
As long term readers will know, I’m always on the look out for an easy buck and my preferred method to make my bucks is by finding losers rather than winners. There’s plenty of laying systems out there, and there’s been plenty tested right here on OBE (just check out the Systems Testing area) but there is a simple little system that I found a few months back that has been on the market for some time now but has managed to fly beneath the radar.
The simple little system has been given the name, Fancy Fillies. When I first discovered Fancy Fillies, I had a good chat with the author and I got the distinct impression that I might have unearthed a wee gem! What drew me initially was the claim that it only takes fifteen minutes a day to find your selection and there is only one selection a day which means no pouring over your PC for hours on end. Add in that in 2007 it performed admirably, banking in the region of £11000 for just fifteen minutes work per day and I was all ears.
So, what can I tell you about Fancy Fillies? Well, not a huge amount to be honest! Firstly, it’s incredibly simple (think Favourites Phenomenon simple), takes just five minutes a day to operate (rather than the 15 claimed) and had a damn fine year last year. There is no complicated selection criteria, nor is the staking plan in any way aggressive or difficult to follow and, because there is only one selection a day, it’s possible to follow the staking plan to the letter.
So far, so good. However, I’m not going to blow smoke up your ass and tell you it’s had a superb year this year because it’s not! The profit for 2008 to date is around the £3500 mark which is clearly a little disappointing compared with 2007. However, don’t forget that this £3500 is for just five minutes ‘work’ a day so is a much better than worthwhile profit (think £170 per hour and you’re not far away!). I’d have problems with this if I was spending all day in front of my PC, but Fancy Fillies recommends you find your bet before 9:30am, so it’s a case of get up, kettle on, laptop on, find bet, drink coffee, job done - I can’t think of any other systems that will allow you to do that.
Fancy Fillies is the perfect system for those with a day job who perhaps don’t want to leave their betting activities in the hands of a bot for whatever reason. The downfall of many a decent system for regular 9-5ers is that most people aren’t around during the day to operate it and that means either evening meetings or weekend only betting. Fancy Fillies solves that problem, so no one need miss out on the profits.
As some of you may have guessed from the name, it is similar to Four The Win, but there are subtle differences that, in my opinion, make Fancy Fillies the better of the two systems, not least the one bet a day philosophy. In fact, it’s this very reason that ensures Fancy Fillies doesn’t suffer the big losses that FTW did earlier in the year.
I think the £3500 profit for 2008 is an indication of how hard a year it’s been for laying systems in general, but is also a lesson that if you stick with a good system, it will repay you - and Fancy Fillies is a good system.
Most of you will have heard me banging on about the need to have a portfolio of solid systems to make a consistent profit in this game and Fancy Fillies is, for me, a worthy addition to any portfolio!
Until next time,
Online Betting Exposed
@tim,
I had 3 losing selections on the trot 9th -11th & the 14th apart from that OK, I’m still be just behind where I was on the 4 th Oct though. However I wish that some of my other stuff was as consistant as this.
@jeff and the mutt
umm, interesting,at the moment I think Iam the kiss of death , 3 bets ) 2 wins ( I lose ! )
will see though
cheers me dears
tim
@Tim,
Correction. That should be 2/1 SP or 3.00 ish Betfair odds.
@Tim,
I ran some stuff through the Massey site today on some random years. If you layed every Filly through the card that qualified under FF rules. You’d probably break even at level stakes. Even limiting racing to the large fields and more open race types little improvement could be made. The only big differential which isn’t a rule in FF is to not run on firm/good/g-firm going. That reduced the number of qualifying races to about 15 per year so not workable.
I tried mixing in False Favorites rules with Fancy Fillies which should optimise laying to the max and if you layed every filly through the card that qualified under both systems you’d probably break even.
60ish % was the norm on most eliminating factors taken one by one. While that might sound quite a good strike rate, if you’re paying out winners at an average of 2.00 Betfair odds + 5% comm on losing selections then that’s how you end up breaking even.
@Scott,
Well put. I think the main reason that the authors suggest the first selection only is to cut down selection time for people that need to get off to work and allow for the staking plan to follow on one day at a time. I don’t actually use their staking plan & if their results are accurate it works out at level stakes albeit for a smaller profit. It’s early days yet to see how the all selections scenario will fare but I just don’t get the logic in the first one only. I think it was John Kerr said on here once the second horse doesn’t know or care that the first horse won.!!! I would agree with that.
If I was selling this system I think I might have put forward both scenarios, but with the data to back it up of course.
Jeff
I would have to go with your approach if I was using this system. For me all of these pick one a day or SAW systems make no sense.
If you listed all of the races one after another for one year I think you would have 8000+[I think?]. We as humans divide our time up into neat blocks, be it hours, minutes, months or whatever. So we then divide up these 8000+ events into blocks (days) that suit our ordered lives, but all you are then doing is stepping in at random points along this big series of 8000+ independent events.
Why not start the selection process at the 6th race of the day? Or the 10th? Or the penultimate race and carry on to the next day?
For this system the initial process of selecting horses is probably a good way of short listing potential lays. But if I was using this then like you I would look at all potential selections and judge them on their merits.
@Tim,
Interesting that they didn’t go for the Clonmel one. Maybe they’re bending the rules a little too. I’m also counting evenings as a separate day. So we’ve got 2 days today if you get my drift. I asked them about that and they say they’ve never tested it.
@jeff and the mutt.
Will do , I ‘ll keep all the lay selections then will compare in a couple of weeks. No it wasn’t Fortune seeker , twas Suzi Spends at Lingfield.
cheers me dears
@Tim,
I don’t stick strictly to the rules I have to admit. For example, I bet that you went for Fortune Seeker at Clonmel which went on to win. Without giving too much of the system away I thought that the first two in that race looked too good compared to the rest of the field and so went for Amhooj later on at Lingfield which had a better chance of being beaten in my book. A couple of others on here are a bit liberal with the rules as well. I actually scan all races for the day and then pick what I think is the best one. I had 6 possibles for today but just went with the one. I’m currently logging (not betting) the results of laying all qualifiers. I tackled the authors on this and they said that there was little advantage in doing that going on their research, but to my mind it doesn’t make sense. As John Kerr said on here once the second horse doesn’t know or care that the first horse won.!!!
We’ll have to compare your subscription results with our filtered ones after say 1 month. Could be interesting don’t you think? Keep in touch.
@jeff and the mutt
are you selecting your bets based on the system ? I’ve just subscribed to the ” subscription service which offers one bet a day. What I understand from the posts here is there are sometimes different lay bets based on how you have worked them out ?
Just interested to know as I read that some members here have their own filters that then only provides one / their strongest bet of the day. I think that is what the monthly subscription provides. Anyway, will see how it goes
( Sod’s law , first bet today wins ( loss )
cheers me dears
@Tony T, Rod.
Once again a bit of thinking required. I skipped the 12.40 at Winc and went for the later race. More attractive I though.
@Freddie - I understand your reluctance, but I can’t agree with your opinion about the long term. The system has been on sale for almost 2 years now and there has been regular results updates showing a £14000 profit.
I said in my review that they’d not had a great year but are still showing a 30 point profit. Now, that may not seem much, but it’s much more realistic than many a system on sale and if you’re playing £100 a point then that’s £3000 tax free income!
@Freddie,
Your 7 losing bets doesn’t match up to Tony T’s (post main forum 27th sept). Maybe some of your selections aren’t the same? I missed last week which was by the sounds of it a bad one. I’ve looked back through their published results and their worst losing run was 5 in May 08, but lost £1,200 to £100 stakes during Nov 08. Hopefully this is just a sticky patch, but this system wins to level stakes if their reported results are reliable. Like a lot of laying systems it’s a long term system so my advice would be stick with it.
I have been paper trialling the system for about a month now and it was going great until a week ago when it all started to fall apart.
At that point I was approx 12 points up but since then I have had 7 consecutive losing days, which has wiped out all profit and left me 12 points down.
I personally don’t think this would work in the long run.
Hi Jeff, I have never thought of trying to follow it through the cards but I work most days so doing as prescribed has worked well for me.
I am fortunate because I enjoy what I do and anything I make from betting is just spending money.
Like Craig said I would also be interested in hearing more if you are able to number crunch. I have never used GHB but have read alot about it and if it was worth doing then I would be interested.
Craig, I intend to make my next purchase a new kitchen. It isn’t as exciting as my cinema system but her indoors is insisting.
@Jeff - I agree in principle with what you’re saying, and I think it probably would stand up to using every qualifier, however, I tend to also agree with what they’re saying about losing runs going through the cards.
I don’t know if you purchased or used Four The Win? A good long term system, and very similar to Fancy Fillies, but it does include each qualifier during the day and it hit a sticky patch earlier in the year there where it lost a chunk of profit. It has gained that back and now moved into profit, but everyone’s had ‘days like this’ where nothing goes right. Taking the ‘one a day’ approach keeps those bad days at bay - although there are always ‘one of those weeks’
If you do get round to number crunching, let me know how you go.
@betninja,
I’d agree with that. It also works on level stakes which is the measure of any good system.
However I queried their reasoning for just one selection from qualifiers per day and they’ve said that they find that qualifiers tend to win in batches and you could get a long losing run layng each qualifier through the card. I’m not against one a day, as a method but I need to be convinced that if it doesn’t stand up for every single qualifier no matter the number of them, then it doesn’t make sense. On that logic you could just as easily run for days and days with losing qualifiers.
Their main get-out on this is that it was developed as a one per day system for those without access to the internet during the day. Fair enough but it should stand up on both counts. I might do some number crunching on that later in the year. It shows a good profit on one per day, but if through the card does work (& why wouldn’t it) then the potential for bigger profits using GHB should be huge.
@BetNinja - That’s certainly one way to look at it
I’ve been using this one for over a year now and I’ve no complaints, It is a real simple system to get to grips with, hasn’t suffered and great losses, and takes me just a few minutes in the morning before work to find my lay.
I built up my bank up and now lay at £200 a point so it’s not been a disappointing year for me. I look at it as money to buy extra luxuries like my LCD TV and cinema surround system. Makes playing my Xbox 360 even more fun.
@Terry,
I’ve got it and it’s definitely laying and one a day. In fact I’ve questioned the author on his reasoning regarding results for one a day vs all qualifiers and a couple of other queries as I usually do and must irritate the pants off these systems sellers, but have yet to recieve a reply which is disappointing. Nice little system though and easy to operate.