Trainer Track Stats 08/09
It’s almost that time of year, Dear Punter, where we get to witness our favourite beastie’s cresting big bushy obstacles on their way to fabulous victory (or dire failure). And so it is that we must turn our attention to way’s of profiting from this fine spectacle, and there is one sure fire way to do just that… Trainer Track Stats!
Matt Bisogno, the author of the rather popular and satisfyingly successful Trainer Flat Stats, is currently putting the final details into his latest version of the highly profitable Trainer Track Stats. Highly profitable, as it has banked 60 and 100 points in the past couple of jumps seasons which, in my humble opinion, is more than adequate!
Trainer Track Stats works in exactly the same way as Trainer Flat Stats which, for those who don’t know, concentrates on unearthing the trainers that do particularly well at certain tracks. It’s a pretty unique method and has proven to be pretty damn profitable too, both on the flat and over those pesky obstacles.
So, Matt has produced a manual with a proven profitable record, which takes all of 15 minutes a day to find selections and which is so simple to follow my young ‘un could figure it out! Is it any wonder I am mighty excited about the upcoming season?? Also, this particular version of TTS is set to be even sweeter because Matt will be launching it with an truly unbelievable offer which will only be available for a limited time. The details of the offer won’t be made public until tomorrow (the 29th August), but believe me when I say you do not want to miss this one!
As a little teaser to the upcoming manual, Matt has released a couple of ‘Making Of’ videos and I recommend you go check them out. They’ve been filmed in an amusing Gordon Ramsay ‘Ridiculously-complicated-dish-made-to-look-incredibly-simple, done kinda way!
Head over to Trainer Track Stats to watch the free videos and keep an eye out for a few other bits and pieces that will be released this week, prior to the launch date, just to tease you 
Update: As from today you can now try Trainer Track Stats for just £1!
Until next time,
Online Betting Exposed
1/4 the place ??? Craig!
Paul P - perhaps I’m just being dozy, but ???
Quotes 1/4 the place in his results, im not sure this is correct. I’ll contact Matt.
Hi guys
If you watch the video on the site currently, you’ll hear a full explanation for the place odds.
In essence, I recommend win only on all qualifiers, but many people do bet either place or each way. When I found out about this, I started tracking these in an ‘indicative only’ fashion.
As you will see from both the video at Trainer Track Stats, and on the results pages at http://www.trainertrackstats.com/20067perf.html and http://www.trainertrackstats.com/TTS20078perf.html, there are comments which explain the indicative nature of these figures.
I have no way of expediently capturing the place odds without amending the formulae for each race’s criteria.
Hope this clarifies. I certainly didn’t intend to confuse or mislead, and I refer you back to the fact that my recommendation is win only, which is the means by which the trainers in TTS were selected.
Happy to discuss further via email if you’d like.
Matt Bisogno,
Author, TrainerTrackStats
p.s. Below is what you will see on the results page:
Matt Bisogno:
N.B. Place calculations are based on 3 places at 1/4 odds.
On some occasions, 1,2 or 4 places are available, and odds may be 1/5. However, typically, betting exchanges will offer odds akin to, and better than, those quoted. These quotations are for indicative purposes only.
Thanks Matt…. I should have emailed you. Regards Paul Prosser
@Matt,
I will follow this with interest, nice little profit on 2006/2007 so could be a winner.Like the manual aswell good read.I would imagine quite a bit of work ?
Regards
Lee
Exellent start there WD
Lee
A great start today with a winner @6.8
I have decided to have two banks, and stake 1pt on the win and 1pt on the place.
Daniel
What sort of bank size would you recommend Matt?
That was probably the most common question we received when you released the flat version this year. I was under the impression it was 50 points?
Me too Paul.
I have both banks at 50pts.
Daniel
50 points is probably okay in the big scheme of things, but I suspect a 100pt bank would make life much easier on your mental well-being. If you’re operating a portfolio then I would run this (and I would actually recommend including TTS in your portfolio) on a 1/100 scale of your bank.
Interested in hearing what Matt’s views are too though….
Hi guys
Yes, 50 points is what I recommend as a minimum in the intro to TTS. As Paul rightly says, we suffer some tricky runs where confidence can take a bashing.
You can see from the previous results that good times are followed by bad times, and bad times by good times and, despite how obvious this is, people just give up and decide that bad times will be followed by bad times (which is totally illogical!).
Anyway, a good start with a trainer nobody’s ever heard of, and who has a big time negative record according to the Racing Post stats.
Expect a quiet time generally between now and middle September, with hopefully some fireworks in the last couple of weeks of September… that’s what the last couple of seasons have shown anyway.
Cheers
Matt
A very slight profit today if you are following my 50 / 50 plan.
Hope you guys were on Irish Whispers yesterday won at 12/1 but i got almost 15/1 on betfair. I think this could be a good year for trainer track stats
@Matt
Both in the book and on the members area it states that the maximum odds to back at are 14/1.
Is this based on the forecast prices or SP?
Regards
Daniel
@Daniel - I’m sure Matt will confirm, but I’m sure it’s based on SP.
Cracking day today for TTS.
I backed them all at BFSP and am up a very tidy 9.5pts
Daniel
I’ve been following TTS, but wondering whether its authors really will back all qualifiers in a race like the 3.55 coming on Saturday at Market Rasen, where 3 runners out of 8 qualify (and the early favourite in betting is just outside the qualifiers). In the previous race there are 5 qualifiers which all look as though they will start at less than 14/1. Do I use what I might laughingly call my common sense, or back ‘em all?
@Manyanga - Matt will follow ALL of his selections. When you’re using a system of any kind, you must follow it to the letter. Failure to do so will lead to a downfall. If you use your common sense as is so tempting, you’ll miss the one that does win - guaranteed
I agree Craig.
I backed all three in the 13.50 today for a profit
@Daniel - It’s the only way to go. You and I both know how Sod’s Law works! If you start second guessing things, then Sod has a damn good laugh at you
From what i’ve seen so far it is a good system to follow.
Started off quietly but it is picking up now with plenty of selections to get your teeth into.
@Daniel,
We’re probably going to get slightly differing results due to when we place out bets I guess. Today for example I only backed 2 in the 1.50 as i was here at the off, but backed the qualifier in the 3.00 in the same meeting as a couple of hours previously on ‘Oddschecker’ it looked as if it would make it under the odds limit. It drifted out and lost. So a difference to your selections. I had asked Matt (not to be confused with the Mutt) for advice on this and he’s basically said that the results are compiled from SP at ‘the off’ but many users of the system are forced to second guess whether the qualifier will get under or over the limit as they may get their bet on in the morning. It’s going to be swings and roundabouts from there.
@Manyanga,
This weekend Mrs Jeff is visiting her mother so if the Mutt and I can tear ourselves away from takaway piazza, tiger beer and Die Hard 4 then I’m going to see if I can get GHB to bet the selections. That should take out the ‘common sense’ factor.
Great system though isn’t it. Looking at the results there are some long lean periods but the winners are supurb prices when they come in. Nice one today.
I’ve been backing these in the normal way, but I see that some posts are saying that they’re using BF SP. As these are fairly long prices in the main and given the exchange claims of 10 - 20% over SP is that a better option I wonder?
Betdaq don’t do their own SP do they? Only the ‘Evil One’ have that facility at the moment as I understand it
Is anyone using GHB to place selections on TTS? I need to know the settings for the upper limit which work best. Obviously 14/1 @ SP is not going to be the same on the exchanges. I was thinking SP + 20%. Any recomendations that work?
I am using Betfair SP but not setting an upper odds limit. I think it is too difficult to predict how the BFSP will compare to standard SP and it would be sickening to miss a big winner by a couple of ticks.
As there seems to be a lot of multiple selections in a single race, I am toying with the idea of dutching rather than level staking.
Any views on this??
@Daniel,
I’m interested in how you predict BFSP to regular SP especially when you get up to around 10/1 as they can drift and 16/1 chances can steam back in. That’s my dilemma at the moment.
Regarding dutching I was having the same thoughts. Set a daily profit target or even a loss recovery with it. These odds are often quite generous so shouldn’t be too penalising. I had also wondered about graduating stakes to the odds due to a 2/1 shot having a supposidly better chance than a 10/1 shot. So 5 points on the 2/1 & 1 point on the 10/1 for example.
So far I’ve had more losers than winners but the generous odds have saved the day and given a good profit.
@Daniel,
Misread your comment there regarding upper limits so ignore that question. The Mutt was hassling me for his dinner.
@Jeff - Did you get my email the other day?
@Craig,
I can only find the Betfair one on the 23rd. It was buried in the 149 e-mails I had on that laptop while I was away pampering Mrs Jeff, but apart from that I can’t see it. When did you send it?.
It was just the other day there Jeff…Thu or Fri sent it to Jdyer@……
@Craig,
I see it now, if it’s about CB.
Just blew the dust out of the server and sorted past all of the Viagra and Britney spam.
Cheers.
@ Jeff & the Mutt - I have GHB upper odds limit set to 17 and it seems to have bet all the same selections that I would have bet if using a bookie and not greater than 14/1 as Matt advises. I Did think about Betfair SP but Matt’s advice put me off.
Hi guys,
In answer to Manyanga’s questions, yes, we back all qualifiers at 14/1 or under to a level stake; and yes, the 14/1 stipulation is SP (this is how the research is conducted).
As others here have rightly pointed out, when the horse is in the 12/1 - 16/1 bracket it can sometimes be an inexact science. But on the whole, there aren’t too many contentious ones, and they do even themselves out. (We had three or four 16/1 winners last year that a few people inadvertently backed).
TTS currently stands up £740 for £20 stakes, using exchange calculations (16% over SP, 5% commission deducted on winners), or £568 up to £20 stakes at SP.
a VERY healthy start to 2008!
Matt
Hi,
I have being following Trainer Track Stats NH 2008/2009. I initially took advantage of the £1 offer until 28/09/2008, the main reason I did not take up the monthly subscription offer was that selections that were put up on the website were not all being included within the profit and loss page we gave me cause for concern. I don’t intend this to be negative, I may have been making errors and the NH season is still in its early stages.
I have been maintaining a spreadsheet of all selections since 07/09/2008 and this is up to date as of today 29/10/2008. The selections 07/09 to 28/09 were as presented on the website. Since then I have been identifying them myself using the manual.
The current position is that by following all of the recommended * trainers the return is -237.79 to a £10 level staje at SP. I have also maintained a selection list for all qualifying Trainers for a racecourse within the “Director’s Cut” section at the back of the manual. This is currently showing a loss 438.89 to a £10 level stake at SP. Note. I have included selections (some winning at proces greater that 20/1.
As I do not have during the day access to the markers it may well be that some of the selections in my list maye have been at odds of greater than 14/1 so should be discarded. Unless I am following the manual incorrectly and/or I have included a large number of runners whose off prices were greater than 14/1 then I would be interested to know what I am doing wrong.
The spreadsheet is available to anyone who may wish to review it and to point out what I may be doing wrong.
@ John - not every horse that a qualifying trainer enters is a selection. As well as not backing anything above 14/1 you should only be backing entrants in particular types of races (specific to each trainer/course combination) as described in the manual. i am sure that if you had been following it correctly, you certainly wouldn’t be showing a 23 point loss.
@john,
I’ve been running this since 26th September and I’m showing +10.59 points. including today. However this has plummeted from a high of +30.55 points on 23rd October. I was just about to put my order into Sunseeker for a 40 foot Gin Palace when the slide hit me. Been a pretty bad period for most systems lately I think.
Hi Gary and Jeff & the Mutt,
Many thanks for your comments. The one thing that I am doing is following the recommended trainer/course/racetype etc., combinations. I have split the spreadsheet into 2 parts:
1. The higlighted trainers/combinations on the individual racecourse page.
2. The “Directors Cut” trainers including those in 1. above
I am only selecting horses if they meet the specified criteria for that trainer at that course (age, class, distance, handicap or not etc., )
Now one of the comments I had made earlier was that I didn’t know, for those selections unplaced, if there SP was greater than 14/1. I now have access to this information and added a new column that will account for this. What I can say at this stage is that to the end of racing on 17/10 TTS is showing +152.42 to £10 level stake at SP . This means that I have been able to identify 14 unplaced “selections” whose price was greater than the recommended 14/1.
I will complete the analysis and provide an update on what I believe to be the current position.
Once again, thanks for your comments.
To follow on on from my previous email I have now corrected my TTS spreadsheet removing, what I had previously suspected, were a lot of “selections” that went off at odds greater than 14/1. The following identifies the current position:
Start Date = 07/09/2008
To £10 level stakes at S.P - cummulative position at the end of the betting day.
07/09/2008 + 80.00
10/09/2008 + 60.00
14/09/2008 + 50.00
21/09/2008 + 10.00
23/09/2008 0.00
24/09/2008 0.00 (no qualifiers)
25/09/2008 + 92.50
26/09/2008 + 137.50
27/09/2008 + 127.50
28/09/2008 + 150.00
03/10/2008 + 140.00
04/10/2008 + 210.00
05/10/2008 + 170.00
08/10/2008 + 170.00
09/10/2008 + 170.00 (no qualifiers)
10/10/2008 + 174.09
11/10/2008 + 74.09
14/10/2008 + 99.09
15/10/2008 + 159.09
16/10/2008 + 129.09
17/10/2008 + 152.42
18/10/2008 + 127.42
19/10/2008 + 97.42
20/10/2008 + 87.42
21/10/2008 + 52.42
22/10/2008 + 42.42
23/10/2008 + 162.50
24/10/2008 + 162.50 (no qualifiers)
25/10/2008 + 62.50
26/10/2008 + 7.50
29/10/2008 - 16.79
Plenty of betting and a good bi of excitement but currently showing a small loss. No doubt the good times will come.
@John,
Regarding my profits of +10.59 so far, I’d forgotten that I didn’t bet TTS between period 20th Sept to 25th Sept inclusive so that may skew the results one way or the other for the total.
Regarding the 14/1 cut-off. I generally run TTS & TSS on GHB which uses Betfair/Betdaq type odds. I therefore set the bot to allow all selections up to 17.00 to compensate for the 20% better odds using exchanges rather than SP.
I’m still subscribing to the daily selections despite checking for selections myself manually. Initially this was to ensure that I was using the criteria properly giving me a check if I’d got it wrong. That was a good move as there were a few times when I hadn’t selected a horse or had selected one and the daily message disagreed. A quick e-mail to Matt & Gavin has cleared any query up. Always my mistake so far I might add. The alarming thing is that I do manage to miss a couple of selections each week, so it’s a good job I’m having this failsafe option. I currently use the Sporting Life racecards to check the trainers against the manual but still manage to miss a couple a week. I’ve got to find a better way of checking before I drop the daily message and go it alone totally.
TSS is showing a loss since I started it.
Cornish Sett came in just by the hair of it’s chinney chin chin. 15’s on Betdaq. Almost back to mid October heights.
I think we deserved Cornish Sett after having 2nds @ 7/1, 5/2 & 13/8 today.
Our 4 other winners covered our losers so this was a very profitable day.
Onwards and upwards:-D
I haven’t heard anything about Trainer Sand Stats which was the bonus which came with Trainer Track Stats in October. For me it got off to a cracking start with a 16.8 winner & from then on it was downhill all the way with only a couple of short priced winners to ease the pain until recently when I’m back up to 3.2 points in profit. Seems to be as volotile as TTS, but nice when they come in. Anyone else doing it?
With all of this talk of systems struggling throughout this autumn I’m surprised no one has mentioned Trainer Track Stats. To say that it’s been volotile would be an understatement and the drawdown since 24th November has been viscious. Or is it only me doing it???
Jeff and Mutt,
I think you’ll find that the losing runs on TTS can be quite long , i don’t follow TTS but run my own systems using the same software as the author so have a general feel of the losing runs involved..having said that i’m sure it will come good.
Jeff - I have TTS but don’t actually use it for betting - just as another piece of information for help when laying or backing other selections.
E.g. If I think I’ve found a False Favourite, I’ll check to see if it’s a TTS qualifier, and if so, I’ll leave it.